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In a post to Amazin Avenue, James Kannengieser looks in to the Yankees stats from this season, and concludes:
“The goal is to score more runs than you allow… Home runs are not evil and pitching alone does not win championships.”
This was essentially my argument, here, when defending Daniel Murphy… or, at least defending the idea that he can hit just 15 home runs and play first base for a Championship team, so long as the team is scoring runs. In short, who cares how they score them, just score them, and score more than you allow, 
which is Kannengieser’s ultimate point.
I trust the Mets will acquire a quality, power bat this off season… add him to Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran, a second-year Murphy and Jeff Francoeur, and the Mets will have a good-enough offense to score more runs than they allow, assuming they also can find a reliable, good-doesn’t-have-to-be-great starting pitcher to couple with Johan Santana, and everyone plays better defense. Sure, that’s a lot of ‘ifs,’ but they’re not unrealistic ‘ifs.’
I believe the above team, which is attainable through only two or three key moves, will be good-enough to compete in the NL East. The Braves and Marlins are on the rise, and the Phillies are weakening.
However, with his back against the wall, and his potential replacements standing outside his door, my biggest fear is that Omar Minaya might do something crazy, like trade away his most promising young talent for a soon-to-be-free-agent, not-tested-in-NY veteran, or, worse, some aging, overrated veteran to a bizarre contract, putting future seasons in jeopardy.
Last week on his blog, Ted Quarters, SNY’s Ted Berg pointed out how, back in 2007, high-n-mighty local newspaper columnists were quick to rip Yankees GM Brian Cashman for not acquiring Johan Santana from the Twins for Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. At that time, the writers claimed Cashman had to ‘go for it,’ he didn’t, and, as a result, God forbid, his team didn’t make the playoffs in 2008, while Hughes and Chamberlain struggled. In a shocking twist, last week, most of those columnists admitted they were wrong… recognizing Cashman did the right thing by sitting idle for an off season, letting money drop from his payroll, and letting a few key, young players gain experience, and then, because of his patience, and understanding how those in-house youngsters fit in, he was able to identify and pounce on players like Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia, and last night he won a World Series.
I think the Mets can operate with a similar patience, let it all play out a bit and then make their move the subsequent two off seasons, when their roster will be ripe for and more able to be overhauled. For instance, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, Jeff Francoeur and John Maine are all eligible for free agency following 2011. So, over the course of the next two off seasons, the Mets will find themselves at some pretty interesting crossroads. Meaning, in significant and meaningful terms, they can either move on from, or continue, what has transpired over the last few seasons.
Frankly, Matt Holliday is the only player on the open market this off-season who I feel is worth signing to a ridiculous contract; because, like Teixeira last off season, Holliday is young enough and talented and athletic enough to build a team around, and so I can justify his asking price. Also, he’s available right now, not one year from now, and he happens to fill the team’s biggest need, which, by the way, will always be a need, i.e., power, hustle and athleticism. Sure, if he wants to trade promising young talent for other known young talent, like a Prince Fielder or Carl Crawford, I’m all for it. But, short of Holliday, or a super-creative move like Fielder, I see no reason to do anything crazy.
The Mets have Johan Santana, who is awesome; they have an elite closer; they have two of the best young players in the game, in Wright and Reyes; they have the best center fielder in baseball; they have a handful of prospects who need more time to develop, but who are garnering more and more interest every day; they have a beautiful new ballpark; and they have a crop of mid-range talent, making reasonable money, like Maine and Pelfrey, who are good-enough to round out a rotation.
So, please, don’t make any sudden movements, Omar… be cool… put Holliday, Wright, Reyes, Santana, Mr. Met and Danny Meyer on a poster and you’ll sell more than enough tickets. It’ll be OK, score more runs than you allow, and it’ll be really OK… do something crazy, and it could hurt for years.
“In a shocking twist, last week, most of those columnists admitted they were wrong… ”
I’m not sure they were wrong. Cashman took a big risk and it paid off, but remember, he had to literally BEG Sabbathia to come to the Yankees, then he threw him Fort Knox. If Sabbathia had gone to another team, then I don’t think the Yankees win the WS. Meantime, Hughes and Joba haven’t really panned out.
So maybe they were wrong on hindsight, but at the time, it might have been the smarter move to trade for Santana.
” Also, he’s available right now, not one year from now, and he happens to fill the team’s biggest need, which, by the way, will always be a need, i.e., power, hustle and athleticism.”
First, I agree 100% with your opinion that we simply have to get Holliday done, the same way we had to get Beltran wrapped up a few years ago. Fills many glaring needs.
You mention power, hustle and athleticism, and personally more than hustle and athleticism I like the fact that he is always healthy, always hitting for average and always posting high on-base percentages as well – other things that are always needed.
You need guys like Holliday with good hitting and OBP skills to offset guys like Franceour (who never walks) and Beltran, who sometimes does not hit for average.
What about Jason Bay?
This whole Cashman argument is ridiculous. He passed on Johan Santana who would have cost him Hughes, Kennedy and Melky, and as a result did not even make the playoffs which was somewhat of a major embarrasment for a team with a $220 million payroll.
Now the Yankees have won the world series, and somehow that makes his “patience” a good move? Lets get something straight here. Hughes is not even in their starting rotation anymore, and he could have COST the Yankees the World Series with his poor pitching. Ian Kennedy is a bum, plain and simple. Career minor league pitcher. And Melky Cabrerra is a 4th outfielder who played no part in the Yankees championship. In fact he was another weakness on an otherwise powerhouse team.
They might have been playing for #28 yesterday, not 27 if they got Johan in 2007, not to mention Johan is the better pitcher.
Again, the Yankees championship was all about money, nothing else. It had nothing to do with Cashmans patience or smarts…and if anyone says otherwise then they are not paying attention. Its not hard to win a championship when in the same offseason you go out and sign players to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th richest contracts in baseball history at their positions.
Ask yourselves this…what position would the Mets be in if they had an additional $80 million to spend per year? Where would they be if they could have added CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Texeira to their existing lineup and STILL have another $20 million to spare for a guy like Matt Holliday or potentially a trade for a guy like Roy Halladay (since with a team like that you suddenly dont need much minor league talent)…
You mean the Mets might have been right not to give up a few good prospects for Adam Dunn during the season like so many wanted to around here?
What kind of patience are we looking for?? Let us not sugar coat, and just say you want the Mets to operate like the Knicks and throw away the next 2 years and then decide. Let us also not exagerrate what they currently have. Santana is an ace, albeit not the same pitcher he once was, and is about to hit an age where he can decline significantly. KRod showed signs of being good, but also looked vulnerable at times last year. Reyes and Wright are coming off disastrous years, and while potentially still good are far from 2 of the best young players in the game. Look at Hanley, Chase, Ryan, Ryan B, Prince, Longoria, and others before you say Reyes and Wright are 2 of the best, unless this group of best totals 20. I also don’get what you define as crazy, EVERYONE on this roster is tradeable, other than maybe Davis and even he can go in the right deal. There are no Kazmirs, Ryans, Bays, etc. to be lost. Nothing is crazy. Now, if you mean that the Mets are not in a position to unload players now, and should wait, then fine. But to say a player or 2 and good health will make them respectable again is peyote induced thinking,,,
David Wright’s year was “disasterous”? I’d agree a bit disappointing but when I was playing and if I ever was being considered for the show, I’d hate to think if I could hit .307 w/ 10 HRs an 72 RBIs in the bigs that a pro scout would say, “Sorry kid but those are disasterous numbers for the majors.”
For the record, I get your point. But Wright’s numbers were more about having no support around him. Otherwise, despite the HR power outage, I don’t think he would have been considered so “disasterous”.
Pay what it takes for Holiday and sign Lackey and they are more than respectable…..how many is that?
No they are not respectable even with that. You are assuming a lot will go right, from Wright not being psyched out by an imaginary field obstacle, to Reyes running healthy, to Murphy (or Delgado) producing, to Castillo not being terible, to Franceour hitting 25 plus dingers (the most reasonable possibility), to Santana being a top 5 pitcher (hasn’t been lately), to Pelfey,Perez, and co. not being the stench, to Niese stepping up big, etc…. Even if this all happened, there is that minor juggernaut known as the Phillies, not to mention the braves slowly retooling along with the Marlins. There is no guarantee the Mets (with only 2 major changes) can bang with any of these teams, and that is just looking within the division. So unless you want an entire season to rest on hopes and prayers, I’d go back to the drawing board and look at more ways to reload rather than just 2 players, because that will not cut it.
Holliday, Lackey, Garland and tweaks to the pen/bench. If you really don’t think that would make us a contender you are simply being way too pessimistic.
Maybe I am, but can Garland compare to Happ as a #3? Nope… Would Holliday w/o a thumper at 1b make the lineup strong enough? Nope… The bench is a crapshoot no matter what, so I do not think it is worth dissecting. Lackey is nice, but is he a sure thing when matching up against Lee, Matt Cain, Dan Haren, or Jurrjens? The Mets need a lot of work, and a lot of Comeback Player of the Year Type stuff to be respectable. This pessimism is not just from the way 09 went for the Mets. The Phillies and Braves also took great leaps as organizatons, leaps that were not factored in to the state of the Mets pre-injuries. Now, they have a ton of catching up to do, more than 2 moves can accomplish…
I would put the signings of Holliday and LAckey on the top of my list. They are musts. The I’ll go get Olivo/Molina or BArajas. Then I ‘ll get MArquis. I’ll tweak both the bench and bullpen. Then maybe I’ll look at Orlando Hudson and trade Castillo.
let me start by saying i hate the freakin phillies and the fact that they lost is the only thing that made this ws remotely tolerable…but to say they are in decline…they will now have cliff lee for the ENTIRE year…and god help me…but…i have a lot more faith in their front office making some good moves (e.g. feliz, ibanez, lee and even lidge for what he did in ‘08) than i do in ours…hope i am wrong…
Matt, Chinese character on the mug means heart. But anyway, if the Cardinals decide to resign Holliday, the Redsox Traded for Hermida, which is almost a given that Bay will be a FA. I like him and I think that if Holliday is resigned then he is a good as signed to Mets, and if not I say Nady is the next option.
Matt I understand your concept of “just score runs, who cares how”. That is all fine and good but HRs are still the quickest way to score and thus should be taken into consideration when evaluating anyone. If we score 1 run and it takes us 3 batters to manufacture it every time what good does that do us when the phillies have 5 guys who can do that with 1 swing. And if we are down 2 runs wouldnt it be nice knowing all we need is to get the tying run to the plate and we have a chance rather than hoping for 4 to 5 hits in an inning to do so.