David Wright hit .307 with just 10 home runs, 72 RBI and a .390 OBP in 144 games for the Mets in 2009.

In the most recent edition of the Bill James Handbook 2010, using an intricate system of statistical analysis, Bill James projects Wright will hit 22 home runs next season, while batting .302, with 99 RBI.

In last year’s book, James projected Wright would hit .311 with 33 HR, while continuing to be one of the top five young players in MLB.

…i still believe wright’s problems in 2009 were deeper than anything we can totally understand… first, to start the season, it seemed Citi Field got in his head a bit, and, despite how it turned out, the ball was going no place in that building during April… then, everyone on his team got hurt, and he wasn’t getting much to hit, he started pressing, changing his swing and it compounded matters for him… then, for the first time in his career, the season got totally out of hand in mid-summer, the team was losing, he got beaned in the head, mocked for his kazoo-like helmet, and before we could blink, it was over…

…next season will be different, because i have five other years to lean on, and so does he… in June of last year, roughly 300 or so at bats in to the season, he was on pace to hit roughly 50 doubles and drive in 100 runs, while hitting over .350 and contending for a batting title… then reyes got hurt, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran disappeared, and, in what can’t possibly be a coincidence, wright’s power numbers disappeared as well…

…he is the least of my concerns for 2010… he’s too gifted and too smart to let such a bizarre season carry over and get them best of him…

Additionally, James also projects Jose Reyes will return from injury to hit .285 with 57 stolen bases, 14 home runs, 67 RBI and 113 runs created.

…man, i hope so… it looks to me like james essentially took jose’s brief 36 games in 2009 and extended them out over 162 games, which is totally fine by me… i’d take that line from jose… give me those lines from jose and wright, and a full season from Carlos Beltran, pop that in to last year, and i don’t think we’re having many of the conversations we’ve been having…

Lastly, James projects Jeff Francoeur will hit .276 with 18 home runs, 87 RBI and 75 runs created in 588 at bats.

To see 2010 projections from James for Beltran, John Maine, Johan Santana, and other Mets, go to Adam Rubin’s blog for the Daily News.