San Diego reporter Bill Center of the Union-Tribune believes the Padres will trade 1B Adrian Gonzalez ‘sooner rather than later.’
Former Padres GM Kevin Towers recently told the Daily News, basically, it’s not a matter of will the Padres trade Gonzalez, it’s when will they trade Gonzalez.
He will earn $4.75 million in 2010 and has a team option for $5.5 million in 2011, or he can be a free agent.
However, according to Center, Gonzalez will likely earn roughly $20 million per season when he is eligible to be a free agent.
Sunday, in the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo said, “Gonzalez has always wanted to play in a place where it matters, and for the foreseeable future, San Diego doesn’t matter.”
…the Dodgers, Red Sox, Rays, Mariners and Marlins were all linked in rumor to gonzalez during last july’s trade deadline…
…gonzalez will cost a fortune… his price will be bid up significantly because of his low salary, and so a team like the Marlins can be in on him… this is not like acquiring a player who is due too much money, and so only big-market teams can end up acquiring him… at minimum, a team like the Marlins or Mariners can get him for two full seasons at a reasonable price…
…in the end, though, i have a hunch the Padres will hang on to him for one more Opening Day, one more round of tickets, and then know he is still a bargain at next year’s july deadline…
Gonzalez hit .277 with 40 home runs and 99 RBI for a Padres last season, 28 of which were hit away from Petco Park.
He hit two home runs in Citi Field during a three-game series in April.
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He’s a good deal. Not that I think we have enough to get him, but he’s good deal.
He’ll be a type A FA, guaranteeing two picks
You can offer him arbitration without fear.
He is darn cheap.
Beltran comes off the books when he becomes a free agent. Probably the one guy I would include Meija and Davis in a trade for.
Let’s see … plays fantastic defense: CHECK. Hits for power and probably would not struggle in Citi Field: CHECK. Young: CHECK. Healthy: CHECK. Good in the clubhouse: CHECK.
I’m one of those people rooting for Daniel Murphy, but if this guy is available and all it takes is Mejia and Davis (plus some other fringe types), it’s a no brainer.
Notes worth considering: Gonzalez has hit over .300 on the road the last several years, and his OBP has been in the .400 range.
I could live with Angel Pagan in LF with Gonzo at 1B
No offense but why on Earth would you think it only takes Mejia and Davis to pull off a trade for Gonzo. If it were that easy, he’d already be in a Red Sox uniform.
The asking price for Gonzo is going to be steep. Too steep for the Mets.
that’s my opinion; it will take Ike Davis, Mejia and maybe F-Mart or Holt at least.
Im not exactly sure why you mentioned that he is a type A free agent, unless you think somehow the Mets would allow this guy to walk in 2 seasons (if presumably they managed to get him now).
But I will say that your Beltran point is well taken. Sure the Mets will definitely try to keep Beltran assuming all goes well and he can still play at close to his current level, but one stands to reason that if he is showing some decline and he will be 34 at the end of his contract, he might make less than the $18.5 million he’s do each of the last 3 years. So how much less would determine the payroll flexibility for Gonzo.
I would give up Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Daniel Murphy, Ike Davis and Mejia for this guy, I would…and its hard to argue that anyone could offer much more than that (or be willing to). Plus, even though he will likely sign a Mark Texiera like contract 8 years $180 million, if you factor in the current 2 years, its more like 10 years $190 million, and thats reasonable for a player of his calibre.
Outside of Mejia and Davis ther is not a lot else in that offer. Niese is a bottom of the rotation guy coming off season ending surgery. The only thing FMart has proven thus far is that he gets injured – and is coming off season ending surgery. If he is the real deal then why is everyone looking for a long-term LF solution this off-season? And then there is Murphy whom at best is a throw in at this point. And, can only play 1B.
If Davis and Mejia will not get it done then adding the other three will not push it to no-brainer territory for the Padres.
Well despite your pescimism towards the Mets minor league talent, Im not so sure most teams would agree with your assessment of the talent involved in this deal.
Jon Niese is a lefty who throws 92mph and has one of the best curve balls in our system. He’s had very limited exposure to the MLB during which time he has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of being a rookie. And yes, he tore his hamstring, but we are not talking about a position predicated on speed. Hamstrings recover incredibly well, and while he might lose a fraction of a second on his 40 time, he’s a pitcher so you get my point…
Fernando Martinez is a prospect who has been rated as one of the top in the GAME. He was rated a few seasons ago as the 17th best prospect in all of baseball. That was before he posted an .877 OPS in AAA at the age of 20. Your only knock on Fernando is his health, not his talent…and you need to differentiate.
Also, to answer your question as to why the Mets are looking for a LF, its simple. They need offensive production, major offensive production, and one of the few places where you can get it in sacrifice of defense in LF. And there just happens to be an offensive machine and great hitter who also happens to be a LFer available this year. Not to mention, I think the Mets see their window of opportunity closing and so they may not be comfortable allowing a rookie to learn next year. They may prefer to give him another year in the minors.
Finally, Daniel Murphy is a cheap young player who you are treating like a seasoned veteran. You act as though his current production is his ceiling. This kid had an .870 OPS in the majors as a rookie practically out of AA ball. Then in his next season he went out and played 155 games in a totally new position (in which he excelled defensively), oh and he also had 50 extra base hits while doing it!
I mean seriously, give me a break! Why dont people open their eyes??
+1
If, as you say:
“Fernando Martinez is a prospect who has been rated as one of the top in the GAME. ”
then why is a long term LF solution that necessary? You cannot have it both ways. If he were that good then why bother with Holliday, or anything more than a 1 year stop-gap? Well? This isn’t softball, you don’t have 4 outfielders.
Murphy is not a major league 1B. Try talking to a Cards or a Twins or a Cubs fan or a … and see what they think of Murphy. Try seeing what cohort group he is in and then tell me that you are willing to bet teh ranch with him as the 1B.
And for Niese: While you are technically “correct” that he doesn’t need “speed” to perform. But, pitching, especially power pitching, comes from the lower body which includes THE LEGS. Since his push off leg is injured I cannot see anyone willing to include him as a major component.
Why don’t you open your eyes.
Scratch that, I don’t think I’d give up Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Daniel Murphy, Ike Davis and Mejia for a guy that I have to commit $190 million to.
There is a risky alternative though. Keep Ike Davis out of the deal, and ride Gonzo for 1.5 seasons (trade him at the trade deadline). This way you can recoup some of that talent, and you give yourself a monster to help you compete for a championship.
But if its about trading for a guy that you are going to sign, then I’d rather keep all of that talent and sign a free agent to that money instead. There might be a drop-off in production and talent, but if even one of those five prospects becomes a star, then you will have MORE than made up for it.
He’s a stud, plain and simple
Even if you would include F-mart and not Ike, Davis could slot in at a corner outfield spot with adequate defense.
I would love to see Gonzo on the Mets but it just ain’t gonna happen. If Boston hardly has the players to pull off such a move, why would anyone think the Mets would?
SD is said to be asking for Major League talent and prospects. Gonzo’s vaule is at it’s highest right now b/c the Padres don’t have to sell him. Factor in his age, power, defense and contract (especially) and he really is the perfect 1B.
That being said, Gonzo would be a perfect fit for our team. Ahhh, we can dream, can’t we?
I don’t even wanna dream of getting him only to be dissapointed. If it happens, words can’t decribe the joy. But, realistically if he’s on the market, we can’t match what the Red Sox can offer. The Red Sox are pumping out pitching prospects and they need a 1B, especially to rival Texiera in their division.
Love to have him. No doubt, but I’d not Give up Ike Davis in a deal for him. Davis can shift to the outfield as the previous poster mentioned.
Also, do you really think Beltran won’t be retained? UNLESS he has serious injury concerns he’ll be resigned. He is easily the best centerfielder in the bigs when he is healthy, which has been the majority of his contract. Try to find a guy who is not only a gold glove defender but RUNS his outfield positioning his team mates beside him, hits for a solid average, hits for power, runs the bases great as well as steals bases with the best of them, has a strong and accurate arm, etc. Who replaces all of that in one player?
It no was no coincidence that once he went down the rest of the team fell apart in 2009. He is the center of this team.
IMO the MEts need to trade for him. Trading for him will give them so much more flexibility.
I would think they could get him for Pagan, Davis, Mejia and Maine. We would not really need Davis if we got Gonzalez. The Padres would get 2 ML ready guys in Maine and Pagan.
We then would not have to spend the money on Holliday and could sign someone like Cameron to hold the fort for a year while F-Mart tries to make it through a season in the minors. We could use the 15 mil or so saved in not signing Holliday to sign Wolf and one of the high reward guys, package Castillo and Murphy for something…
Basically if you have to overpay for Gonzalez do it…with Reyes Wright Beltran and Gonzalez we would have a lineup that could compete with the Phils
We can’t get him for that package. Pagan is viewed by most as a 4th outfielder. Maine is a pitcher who hasn’t shown that he is particularly durable, he cant pitch deep into games and he hasnt been that good. So he’s at most a #3 pitcher right now. (He could be more, but not right now). So basically you are trading one raw prospect (Mejia) and one very good prospect (David) and a #3 pitcher and a 4th outfielder with 0 power for Gonzalez. Not to mention, have you seen what the Red Sox offered for him…it completely blows this out of the water.
I’d have no qualms throwing in FMart instead of Pagan…if you ask me there is no way we are getting through this offseason with FMart still in our system
Still won’t work. They’re asking for Major League talent: Compare it to Lester from Boston; neither Maine nor Pelfrey are better than Lester.
My point is, not only would it take guys like Mejia, Davis and FMart but it would take solid players on our 40 man roster. And, quite frankly, we don’t have solid players outside the “Core”. Perhaps Frenchy, perhaps.
F-mart, plus Murphy, Parnell and either Holt or Mejia
or F-Mart, Ike Davis, Parnell and Holt or Mejia
as they are the only difference. then : Murphy = Davis. I’d like to see / hear some justification of that.
murphy and ike are not “equal” per se, but if the pads want someone with big league experience, albeit a down year last year, murph is their guy. if they want a prospect who had a hot year, but will be in the minors next year, go for ike
His down year is his only year with little promise from his minor league records implying things will be much different. Brian Schneider has major league experience and had an off year too.
There is a bunch of guys I would trade for him and Ike has high value right now, it would be a good time to trade him, who knows if he will turn out to be as successful in the major league level and we know that Gonzo is, Also, I agree Beltran will probably be retained if he is healthy.
I actually disagree. I dont think Ike’s value is the highest right now. I agree that its high, but only as high as it could be for a guy that played btwn A & AA. The absolute peak for a minor leaguer is when he is AA/AAA with ultra high production. I say this is the peak because if you call him up to the MLB and he produces, then you are not letting him go, so the point is moot.
Think back to when David Wright was almost traded. No one was willing to trade a major leaguer for a single A prospect. Its an absurd concept.
i don’t think his value is at it’s “highest” but I do think it’s pretty high and we could cash in on that at this point but i don’t know. I also was not suggesting that it would be a straight up trade but I think we could get it done without emptying the farm especially if we included Ike in the deal.
i’d trade hor him and have Ankiel in LF. We then can still sign MArquis or GArland or Wolf. We can also sign a catcher and boost the bench and bullpen.
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