Buzz: The Inevitable Price of Matt Holliday

November 12, 2009 at 14:22 pm · 15 comments

by Matthew Cerrone

Earlier this week at the GM Meetings, Scott Boras told reporters that his client, Matt Holliday, is a ‘franchise player,’ just like Mark Teixiera, who signed an eight-year, $180 million with the Yankees last off season.

“You have a franchise player at a young age and you have a chance to differentiate yourself from all others,” he said.

Dave Cameron of Fan Graphs explains, “Holliday’s dependence on a high BABIP for his offensive value makes him a greater risk (than Teixeira), and increases in risk drive down value.”

Cameron believes Holliday will end up signing for 10 to 15 percent less money than Teixeira got from the Yankees.

…so, say, $19 million per season, and, like, six or seven years, instead of eight… which, by the way, is roughly that same seven-year, $119 million deal i mentioned last week, or like Carlos Beltran signed with the Mets in 2004… the thing is, right now, i don’t think any team believes they need to offer that much money… i have heard interested teams intend to offer around $80 million over five years… this is not to say they refuse to pay more, i just don’t think they think they’ll have to… so, in the end, if a team steps up, guarantees a sixth year and pushes the total up above nine figures, that could be the final bid

In a post to his blog for the New York Post, Joel Sherman explains why he believes the battle for Holliday will come down to the Mets and Cardinals.

Speaking of statistical comparisons, check out James Kannengieser’s post to Amazin Avenue, where he explains why Holliday is a better defensive outfielder than free-agent Jason Bay.

{ 15 comments }

davidus1 November 12, 2009 at 2:51 pm

This is interesting. Early reports were that the Cardinals were offering 6 years $96 million. So if that were true, then a 5 year $80 million offer would make no sense.

Now if on the other hand that wasn’t true at all, and the Cards in fact are not even close to that number then this market could shape very differently.

If the Mets were able to get Matt Holliday for 6 years $100 million (to satisfy his desire for a $100+ million contract), then this would be great.

Nicky Noodles November 12, 2009 at 3:16 pm

The Cards also stated that they weren’t interesting in a bidding war. Basically the offer they put out there, whatever it may be, is their only offer. Take it or leave it.

We’ll see if they hold true to that comment but you never know…

In the end, I think we’ll sign Holliday. It makes all the sense in the world for him to be a Met.

statnut November 12, 2009 at 2:52 pm

I say five years, $100 million. This way you’re not stuck with a six or seven year deal, and its tempting to Holliday as he might get one more payday before he retires.

davidus1 November 12, 2009 at 4:18 pm

Why would we do that if we could probably sign him for 6 years $100 million.

Or as Matt suggested, 7 years $119 million is probably the highest he might get. So why wouldn’t we take him at $9.5 million per season for those 2 extra years (at the very least he’d be enticing trade bait.

murpheeee November 12, 2009 at 3:39 pm

this is going to drag on for months. Bora$ likes to likes to hang his clients out for as long as he can trying to get every last cent.

Xavier22 November 12, 2009 at 3:53 pm

I dunno, the Beltran deal went down right around the holidays if I remember correctly. Bora$ is greedy, but he’s not stupid. If he sees the ceiling for his client is only so high, he’ll strike while the iron is hot. He doesn’t want to risk Omar (or whoever) getting annoyed and puling the trigger on a trade that negates the need for Holliday.

Dimebag69 November 12, 2009 at 4:07 pm

Without the Yankees or Red Sox getting involved, Boras isn’t getting Tex money for Holliday.

Tex got that contract because both teams were competing with each other.

Since the Phillies don’t need a corner OF, and the Braves can’t afford one, the Mets don’t have to overpay to block a rival.

I say every team puts up their latest, greatest offer, then subtract $1M for every day he takes to decide.

Andrew November 12, 2009 at 4:10 pm

Holliday is not a franchise player. Period.

MetsFan06 November 12, 2009 at 4:42 pm

The MEts should make Holliday and Halladay there main prioties. Then sign Wolf and Molina or Barajas. Would ever the Mets do, do do anything dum to get Halladay. Trade F-Mart, Nieve, Parnell, Tejada and Flores and that will probably get it done.

Mets5rocks November 12, 2009 at 5:02 pm

Frankly, Halladay isn’t worth all those pieces!

MetsFan06 November 12, 2009 at 5:27 pm

What would you do then.

JohantheMan November 12, 2009 at 7:24 pm

Did you mean Neise? Or do you actually mean Nieve? If you mean Nieve I think its a good package but I think the way to get it done with the Blue Jays is

either
1. Offer to take part of the Wells contract, 60 percent? I realize it’s a lot of money but it would drop the cost of Halliday in terms of prospects

2. Offer the Blue Jays the book. tell them to pick four, and suck it up and do it, Halladay makes the team instantly better and gives a message of seriousness

3. Offer them, Fmart or Ike. Tejada or Havens, Neise or Pelfrey then Idk if they want Parnell I wouldn’t be broken up about this. Give them choices so you can keep some of the prospects.

Okay, so nobody knows what Toronoto wants except young players so you have to try to make it happen, seriously, it’s Doc Halliday.

MetsFan06 November 12, 2009 at 8:09 pm

Why is that bad that I put Nieve in. I like Niese more and thought that the JAys would want him

MetsFan06 November 12, 2009 at 8:10 pm

By the way, good post!

JohantheMan November 12, 2009 at 7:21 pm

Again, this same post is like four posts down, i can’t keep track with all the posts especially on the same subjects

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