According to Adam Rubin, in a report for the Daily News, this off season, the Mets will look for a power upgrade in left field.
First of all, this idea that the team MUST improve their power is important, but the goal should not be that simple. I mean, Rob Deer hit for power, but I would not say he is the prototype the Mets should be gunning for.
That said, Giants GM Brian Sabean told the San Francisco Chronicle that he does not expect to contact free-agent OF Matt Holliday or OF Jason Bay about playing for the Giants.
Meanwhile, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com recently said, “There are no signs the Yankees are in on either Holliday or Bay.” In fact, according to FoxSports.com, the Yankees might be passing on Holliday and Bay, “in order to wait one more year for Rays left fielder Carl Crawford?”
The Cardinals would like to re-sign Holliday. However, the team’s chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., told ESPN Radio, ‘if a big-market franchise goes all-out to land Holliday, the Cardinals won’t have a chance.’
Yesterday, Angels owner Arte Moreno flatly told the Los Angeles Times, “Holliday is not going to be an Angel.”
So, of the teams who can afford him, who is interested in Holliday?
I believe the Mets would love to sign him, but not to an eight-year deal, like his agent, Scott Boras, keeps pushing in the media.
Frankly, I see this situation very, very similar to how the market was before the 2005 season for Carlos Beltran. In the end, Beltran had no choice but to sign with the Mets, despite making a last-ditch effort to end up in the Bronx. From what I can gather, the Mets would prefer to sign Holliday to a four– or five-year deal, worth around $15 million per season.
However, Boras is thinking more like eight-years, $180 million.
In the end, I still believe Holliday will end up signing a six-year deal, with whomever jumps the total value over $100 million.
I hope it is the Mets.
I feel Holliday is worth this type of money, because he’s young enough, well-rounded enough, he’s aggressive, he’s looking to be a leader and a star on a high-profile team, he’s better on defense than Bay, the Mets can afford him, he’s a terrific hitter – better than people probably even realize – and he solves a problem in the field (range) and in the lineup (balance and power) that the team has been trying to solve for years.
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my biggest concern is that Boras is unlikely to get a deal done quickly and I’m afraid that will leave this hole going late into the off season.
i agree. And as we know Omar can’t multi-task so if Holliday drags on that means useful parts will sign elsewhere while Omar waits out Boras.
most of all DWright can relax with Holliday in the mix. This team is way different with a beast like that in the lineup.
I’m really undecided on the Holliday vs Lackey debate.
Holliday gives the team a huge force in LF.
Lackey gives the Mets the better pitching matchup in 40% of their games right off the bat.
Holliday will likely get nearly 120 mil for 6 years
Lackey will likely get close to 90 mil for 5 years
While I love the idea of adding a high slugging % guy to the team that led the NL in hitting last year, pairing Lackey to Johan might be too good to pass up.
Holliday and Wolf vs Lackey and Cameron? Its a tough call
Holliday and Wolf.
I can’t decide either. I would love to have both, but we aren’t the Yankees here. I just know that Lackey would rock in the NL, assuming he’s healthy (and that’s a big if). Fred, Jeff & Omar– can’t we make it work somehow? (C’mon, everyone take a pay cut!)
Nothing tough about that call, Lackey, while a good pitcher, has had arm issues (recent ones at that) and clearly is not worth anything near 90 million and definetly not worth that much too the Mets! The Mets could sign both Wolf and Piniero for that kind of money and have change to boot. Those two together will get you better pitching than Lackey alone and for less money and a shorter contract length. If the Mets are gonna shell out Big Money, the smart money says it will be on Holiday!
Well, It’s unlikely Pagan will improve much. But Pelfrey’s is almost a definitely improvement and Maine and Perez, as well as other SP options, can have good years.
It’s not enough to hope Pelfrey improves a lot and Maine and Perez stay healthy and effective (and whoever they sign as fifth/Niese are good) but it’s definitely more important to fill the hole that’s less likely to give good production.
Matt – I really like the part where you say “Holliday is a better hitter that most people realize”.
People have such a tendency to judge a hitter based on HRs, and while Holliday has had his share, he is so much more than that. Matt Holliday is a terrific hitter. He will have the highest average on your team and be a leader in XBH, all while playing hard and with good defense.
Dream come true if we get him.
Look at Holliday’s H/A splits. The following are his away stats. The XBH were doubled to reflect a full season. The first is his BA.
2004: 240 / 34
2005: 256 / 36
2006: 280 / 66
2007: 301 / 66
2008: 308 / 50
2009: 300 / 50
average away BA: .278 (harmonic mean)
His great 2007 season home / away:
BA: 376 / 301
2 * XBH: 118 / 66
Away OPS in 2007: .860
Is this the greatness of which we speak? For if it is there seems to be some explaining to do.
Delgado’s 2008 season, the one that is constantly harped on:
BA: 283 / 80 / 863 (away BA / 2*away XBH / away OPS)
BA: 301 vs 283
XBH: 66 vs 70
OPS: 860 vs 863
Where exactly is the quantitative difference?
So for the last three years he’s been a .300 hitter away from Coors Field? I’ll take it. He’s a line drive hitter who could hit 50 doubles in CitiField.
Assuming that he hits 20 on the road he would have 70 for the year breaking Earl Webb’s 79 year old record.
So, since you would take it does that meant you’ll take Delgado?
2010 Delgado is not 2008 Delgado (and the 2008 version was half a year)
My point is that if you rip Delgado’s 2008 then you cannot turn around and say Holliday is the Moses of baseball and will lead the Mets to the promised land.
I’d rather have Bay. Holliday is way overrated even with the stick. He’s a Coors Field beneficiary with holes in his swing.
Bay’s power is to left field where most Citi Field homers find their exit..
Holliday is venerable inside, especially, up. His bats too slow there to catch up.
Also, I’ve been hearing for weeks about how Holliday is a subpar defensive LF. I haven’t watched him day in and day out, and like everyone else, I saw his disastrous muff in the playoffs, but Bill James’ consensus panel of scouts and writers lists him among the top 5 LF gloves every year (Fielding Bible, billjamesonline.com).
Can he really be overrated by so many people?
Couldn’t agree more Matt. I want this guy on the Mets and if something like 100 for 6 will get it done then the Mets need to make it happen.
6yrs/$110 is a very fair deal for Holliday. He is not the caliber player of Tex or Beltran, period, end of sentence.
We need to sign Holiday. The Mets need to make a splash. We need to tie him up for the next 6 years. To me its a no brainer give me a player whose in his prime.
Can’t we just get Micah Owings and solve both issues at once?
A decent pitcher who can hit for power, and he’s cheap…
j/k
I kind of laughed at this when I first went through it… the Yankees are holding off for Crawford who would be perfect in LF for the Mets, and the Mets are chasing down Holiday or Bay who would be perfect for the Yanks LF. A little funny, no?
Unless the Mets get good power production out of 1B and RF, Carl Crawford is not a fit for the Mets. Right now the Mets have two platoon type players at those positions (Murphy and Francouer).
F-core never has been a platoon player in RF, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon.
I would love Crawford in RF next year. Denying Francouer arbitration and then sign Crawford. That won’t happen in a million years, but it would still be cool. I also don’t think it would be smart. They should spend their money on a front end starter next year.
How do you figure?
Crawford is a perfect fit for the Yanks. Jeter is a free agent after next year. They’ll need a lead off hitter. They don’t need power… They led the majors in homers last year!
Meanwhile, the Mets… as the team is currently constructed don’t need speed. They need power. If the Mets get Agonz for 1B, that’s a different story. You need to fill your holes first and that’s power and then another pitcher.
i’d love me some rob deer in this lineup right now
anyway, he’s better than bay on defense? does bay wear hulk hands out there instead of a glove? because holliday is not a good defensive left fielder. maybe you’re right, i just haven’t compared the UZRs and such.
(this is not to be construed as being against holliday – he’s probably the best option the mets have, all things considered)
Matt Holliday has always had a positive UZR save for one season four years ago. His UZR for the last three seasons are as follows, 2007 14.2, 2008 9.1, 2009 5.7.
Jason Bays UZR for the last three years: 2007 -11.5, 2008 -18.5, 2009 -13.0. In fact he has had a negative UZR for pretty much every season he has played.
Yes, these defensive stats are inadequate and can never replace the old fashioned way of evaluation – your own eyes and knowing what to look for.
I think Holliday is a poor defense player who doesn’t move very well, doesn’t takes good routes and has lead hands. Citi Field will swallow him up.
Perhaps all you need to know about the new age defensive stats is that Danny Murphy came out #1 on one of them at first base – I think it was UZR, and Texieria was something like 17.
I think Bay is a much better defender than Holliday and will not hurt us – unlike Holliday who will. What we saw of Holliday in that playoff defensive muff is the very same stiff moving, slower moving limbs and body of a big, muscled man hampered by it.
Bay, on the other hand is streamlined, with long legs….he moves with far greater ease.
And as he agent points out, there aren’t a whole lot of places to range in Fenway’s left field. Obviously the park configuration very much factors into that even when stats adjust for such.
You’ll see the truth about Holliday vs. others, when the new scientific tools of measuring reaction time, jumps, routes, ball to hand transfer, etc, become prominent – they’re on the way -and will open a whole new world to defensive measurement that will make the current “modern” metrics innacurate and obselete.
Forget Holliday, give up the farm for A-Gon for offense and sign Cameron for defense in LF. That leaves plenty of cash left over for some much needed PITCHING. Harden, Sheets incentive deals and Wolf. IF healthy that is a 3 ace rotation.If they break down then we would still have PLENTY of cash for some starters next year.
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