Last night Rob Bradford of WEEI Radio said an unidentified team has extended an offer of ‘beyond four years’ for free-agent OF Jason Bay.
…so, not necessarily a five-year guarantee, but more than four, which, to me, must mean a fifth-year option…
Bay’s agent, Joe Urban, told the Boston Globe that Bay does not intend to wait around for the Red Sox to up their offer, adding, “If they want, they can reengage at some point in this process, but we’re not going to wait.”
…last friday i said, from what i understand, having talked to people connected to the team, a) the Mets offer to bay is probably back-loaded, and b) though the current offer doesn’t have it, they are willing to go to a fifth-year option, but i do not believe it will never be guaranteed… so, i wonder if the unidentified team in bradford’s report is the Mets… i’m thinking it might be, because i believe the Mets want bay enough to do it…
…also, it seems the bigger hurdle here is the Angels, not the Red Sox, as Anaheim is held up in talks with the Blue Jays about RHP Roy Halladay… if the Angels do or do not acquire halladay, it is bound to influence how they approach bay and John Lackey… meanwhile, the Mariners are eyeing both bay and lackey, as are Mets…
…hey, Scott Boras, how is free-agent superman Matt Holliday feeling about this…
…i still think holliday is the better fit for the Mets… i do… early in the off season, i though the Mets felt the same, because i was under the impression they believed he wanted back in Boston, and still does, followed by Seatte… in other words, i think if holliday were to magically drop his price to bay’s four-year-with-an-option level, the Mets might turn to holliday, as might the Angels…
…the buzz in St. Louis suggests the Cardinals most recent offer to holliday might fall short because he is seeking a no-trade clause, and a $100 million deal, which are two things they are not likely to give him… i assume boras must be thinking, let the bay situation play out… more than one team will be left at the alter, at which point he’ll swoop in and fill the void with holliday, in hopes of getting his client everything he wants…
So, say these are the choices:
Matt Holliday, for six years and a no trade clause, at roughly $20 million per year.
Jason Bay, for four years, with an option, at roughly $16 million per year.
John Lackey, for five years, with an option, at roughly $$16 million per year.
[poll id="322"]
I really love Bay. I love his personality, that he was a former Met, that he was as clutch as he was down the stretch for Boston, etc etc.
However, I loved him at four years. I like him at five. Considering Holliday’s age, I think if you’re going to give Bay the extra year, you might as well pony up for the younger outfielder, with better all around offensive statistics. I’m just worried about Holliday’s response to playing a big market, since he’s been tucked away nicely in the mountains and in that black hole in Oakland for too long. He choked hard on that last defensive play this fall, in the spotlight, national TV. I don’t know if he’s a New York player.
I’m sure you relaize this, but Bay is not a former Met…he was in the system for a bit, acquired from Montreal in the Scott Strickland deal (!) and shipped back out for Steve Reed (!!). So he wasn’t a Met or a homegrown prospect – just another mistake by Steve Phillips.
Holliday’s contract is crazy. Bay is not a great fit. Lackey’s contract is fair and will help the Mets. Best offer for each assuming we can only get one:
Lackey 5 years/ 16 million/ with a no trade
Holliday 5 years/ 20 million/ with an no trade
Bay 4 years with team/mutual option for 5/ 16 million/ no no trade
I would not want to be paying Lackey $16M/year in the 4th and 5th years of his contract.
Agreed, i would rather pony up for the every day player than 1 that plays every 5 days, especially with all that pitching freed up on next years FA market.I wouldn’t want to be tied up paying ace money to a number 2 then can’t afford an ace next year.
But do you think Webb, Volquez, Vasquez, Beckett, Lee, Doc etc. will come to the Mets next year if we don’t go after Lackey this year? It’s a tough call b/c we need pitching to compete. Maybe we can go with Sheets or Bedard as our #2 and Marquis or Pineiro as our #3. Then next year, we can go after one of those aces I alreday listed.
We were thought to be going to the WS before all the injuries and with none of those pitchers. We really aren’t as far as what people think to be a contender as long as we stay healthy. I would much rather go after Sheets and/or Bedard and have a chance at one of the pitchers next season instead. Last year was a fluke and i doubt any team could have done any better with all those injuries to key players.
I voted for Lackey based on what Matt wrote. No way Holliday is worth 20mill. I think he is worth no more than 6 years at 17mill. Lackey is worth 5years for 75-80mill and Bay is the same exact for Lackey. Lets just hope we can backload 2 of the 3.
I want us to get Lackey and Bay and I still think its possible especially if the Bay contract is backloaded
Hey what is it with you 2 and backloading? I mean it’s certainly an option, but not a neccesity,….relax guys
I just meant that if the mets are backloading the deal (which i heard they were and matt says above) then that leaves extra cash in this years budget
I also think we CAN backload.
Backloading makes the most sense to me, like Johantheman said, it will allow us to get Lackey and Bay for now… But it might mortgage our future…
Yes Ollie and Castillo will give us 18Mil off the books in 2 years but backloading those 2 contracts probably means in 2 years they will be being payed 20mil’ish each…
Its an option… but Im torn between both sides
If they are going to backload they better start developing a replacement for Carlos Beltran in the minors…
take away his 18.5 mil and try replacing his production with a 10-12 MM player… just not happening.
Sure Perez and Castillo are coming off the books, but Wright and Santana have significant increases, and Reyes will need to be resigned… and there is that 17.5 MM option on K-Rod for 2012. I’d say that 18 mil is consumed by those four players alone.
2010 Wright, Santana, and K-Rod make a total of 42.5MM
2010 Wright, Santana, and K-Rod could make a total of 56.5MM
So that leaves you 4 mil to backload from 2010 to 2012… not much. And it presumes that they developed a 2B and a 4th starter from the minors… good luck with that.
I voted Holliday before reading contract considerations. Holliday is not worth $20M over 6. No way. I would rather Lackey, and dumpster dive for a LFer. I would really want Crawford though. The Rays asked for Carlos Quintin from the Sox, so I can’t imagine trading F-mart for Crawford. Perhaps they could convince Mike Cameron to come over and play LF for a cool $10M for 1 year with a club option for a second.
Only problem is that if the sox get bay and the Yankees sign Damon to a one year deal then we will get nothing. The Yankees as I read somewhere love Crawford. I like Crawford too except I just don’t think we can trade for him or compete with the Yankees for him in free agency. We should get Lackey, get Bay for the right price, and see about Crawford next year.
Why would we look at Crawford next year. If we lose out on Bay or Holliday, we should trad for Crawford this year. And if we do get Bay or Holiday, why would we want Crawford next year? I praying that we resign Beltran for like 3 more years and everyone knows tht when the Yanks love someone. They will get him.
Agree about Crawford. If we get Lackey and CAN’T backload any of the 2, we should defiantely trade for Crawford.
Crawford is a great player but the team lacks power, it’s not enough to depend on Beltran/Wright for the power this year because Wright had a power down year and Beltran is just one man, Delgado is not coming back and we are missing a cleanup hitter. Crawford does not fill that void. The other FA 1B’s don’t fill it either. The only way the Crawford thing works is if we sign Delgado for another year and wait on Ike or another FA to be available but it’s risky taking a chance on an older player coming off hip surgery.
It was jsyt a suggestion for people who think the team should be no power, just pitching, speed and defense. But I would prefer both Bay and Holliday over Crawford.
I think Power is overrated… think about it, a Healthy Reyes and Crawford as a 1-2 at Citi could get TONS of triples… But I dont want to trade for Crawford… Because our Minor League system is pretty weak no matter what anyone says(We took the most minor leaguers in the Minor League Rule 5 Draft) so we need to rebuild down there not keep throwing it away on players for 1 year
Id rather sign a 1 year stop-gap and then sign crawford if we cant get Holliday or Bay
“unidentified team” since when does scott boras represent jason bay.
lol, He doesn’t, but…….I think Boras taught a class over the summer which Urbon attended! lol The Mets are going to have to give Bay 5 years, I don’t think that was ever in question really.
If he ends up getting a guaranteed 5th year he can go to some other team for that
Of those three at that Id rather have lackey but I still think we should go after holliday and a 2nd tier pitcher then wait till next offseason to sign a pitcher to a big contract.
Agree but the 2nd tier pitchers like Sheets, Bedard, Pinero and Marquis are great but they aren’t that consistent. Next year, Doc, Beckett, Lee, Webb and many other good pitchers will be out there. Lets see if we can sign Lackey this year and Webb or Beckett next year. But lets take 1 year at a time. Lets backload Bay and Lackey.
LOVE IT MetsFan06!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lets hope we can get both of them.
Holliday is just too expensive even if he is a better fit for us.
And if we do lose out on Bay and Holliday somehow, we’ll surely get Lackey and should trade for Crawford.
or miss out on everyone and throw money at Scot Schowenweis and Guillermo Mota… worked so well in 2007.
Decisions made during this off season will have an impact on their approach next year as well.
If they sign both Bay and Lackey (love to see it), you can forget about investing in Webb or Beckett next off season season. With no major contracts off the books until after 2011 (Beltran: $20MM, K-Rod: $12MM, Castillo: $6MM, O Perez: $12MM and possibly Reyes: $11MM), plus Wright getting closer to Free Agency, it will be highly unlikely for the Mets to make a play on those guys. After 2010, they should start negotiating contract extensions with both Reyes and Wright to keep them long term
Still, if they were to add Bay *and* Lackey (Wilpon’s will have to increase budget), team should be set for the next two years:
Lineup:
SS Reyes
2B Castillo
CF Beltran
3B Wright
LF Bay
RF Francouer
C Molina
1B Murphy
Rotation:
LHP Santana
RHP Lackey
RHP Pelfrey
LHP O Perez
RHP Maine
I like Lackey a lot, he remains me of Al Leiter. The Mets got him at the age of 32, with history of injuries. Yet he pitched for 7 seasons with the Mets until the age of 38. Leiter was a bulldog, could dominate teams in his good days but also gave the team a chance when he didn’t have his best stuff. He wanted the ball under pressure and wanted to finish what he started. In 2003 the Mets trying to team up a 1-2 punch of Glavine and Leiter to compete in the division, but unfortunately both were 37 years old. But if they could combine a 30 year old Santana with a 31 year old Lackey, it will make a strong 1-2 punch for the next 4-5 years. They could compete against anybody in the ML in a short series. Assuming Halladay ends up with the Angels:
Team #1 #2
Mets Santana Lackey
Phillies Lee Hamels
Yankees Sabathia Burnett
Boston Beckett Lester
Angels Halladay Weaver
Cards Carpenter Wainwright
Marlins Johnson Nolasco
Giants Lincecum Cain
DBacks Harden Web
Granted, some of those teams have more depth (3-5 starters). In in shorts series, teams must have two strong starters who can possibly win 3 to 4 games.
Nice post. Do you think that Lackey is the best one out of Webb and Beckett. I think we should still add Marquis to a 2-3 8mill deal.
Assuming they are all healthy, both Webb and Beckett are better than Lackey (stuff wise). Lackey may have an edge over Webb in terms of being pressure tested (playing in big markets and playoff experience). But both Webb and Beckett will command contracts way higher than what Lackey is seeking (think $18MM to $22MM vs $15-16MM).
Lackey was a #1 with the Angels, but he is really a strong #2 in teams like Mets, Yankees, Giants, Marlins, Cards and Phillies. He is what the Mets need.
Very true. I didn’t think about it that way.
When it comes to signing Marquis I have to wonder if they can get better value by signing an OF instead.
I don’t see Marquis being 5 MM better than Maine in 2010 (projected 9MM v. 4MM) so unless they can swap Maine for a young, cheap, everyday LF then its probably more cost effective to just keep Maine and spend that 5MM on a LF from the scrap heap.
I like the post but One thing I would change…. Wrights not our cleanup guy…. put Beltran or Bay there… either
3 Wright
4 Beltran
5 Bay
Or
3 Beltran
4 Bay
5 Wright
Good enough for me! ;-)
I vote Lackey, we someone behind Santana, this is the most important need, we have options with LF.
Interesting results. I was not expecting that lackey would be the favorite in the poll. A pitcher for 5 years is risky, yet the fans here still realize the value of starting pitching.
One way to think about this is collateral damage.
Imagine these two scenarios:
A) You sign Holliday/Bay, but then Santana gets injured.
B) You sign Lackey, but then Wright/Beltran get injured.
Which one would you prefer? Which would be more of an issue?
With NO ONE ELSE in the rotation, and Santana coming off of an minor injury/surgery, I think we would be toast if he went down. If we had Lackey (or another top tier pitcher), and a few of the Pelfrey/Niese/Perez/Maine types step up in 2010, we still have a chance. Without a Lackey, it’s adios amigos, even with a Bay or Holliday.
Now, if one of Reyes, or Wright, or Beltran were to get hurt and we had Santana and Lackey (plus whoever the Mets pickup to play LF and/or platoon with Murphy), we’re probably still in decent shape, especially if Fernando Martinez can give you anything next year.
So, while I think Holliday is the better all-around player (position aside), I think the Mets need a guy like Lackey FAR MORE.
Finally, I would sign Holliday AND Lackey AND Marquis … and make it work financially … but that’s just me. Marquis for 10 mill per (give or take) is a better investment IMO than Cora and Molina. One of Holliday or Lackey is a wash anyway with the departure of Delgado, so you are only adding one of Holliday/Lackey to the payroll, and you can backload it a year or two.
Peace out.
very good point, the pitching staff as is cannot sustain an injury to Santana because there is no other top tier workhorse guy that makes you better by being on the mound, I don’t know where the Mets plan to go after their pursuit of bay but i HOPE it’s for Lackey. I agree that signing another guy would also help but what do you do with him? Trade Peflrey or Maine? Send one of them to AAA, Maine to the bullpen? Send Ollie to therapy until somebody gets hurt? It’s not a bad problem to have i just dk where the odd man out would go
Send Maine to the pen.
Rotation:
Santana
Lackey
Pelfrey
Perez
Niese
Pen:
K-Rod 9th
Parnell 8th
Maine 8/7
Stokes 7/6
Feliciano situational lefty
Sign Kiko Calero 8/7
Bring up Tobi Stoner
Sign another reliever maybe lefty. Beimel?
Good post. If that happens to the Mets I will cry and 16 year old boys do not cry unless someone dies. I think we should get Bay and LAckey or Holliday and Lackey and Marquis.
If we are only signing one of the three, I’d go with John Lackey. A starting pitcher of his caliber is rare by himself, let alone the thought of a partnership between him and Johan, an absolutely tremendous force to be reckoned with. Options for left field meanwhile are much more in abundance. For example, even though I’m not crazy about him, I’d sign up on pairing Jermaine Dye with John Lackey this off-season. You are getting yourself a power bat in Dye as you would had we spent on Bay, for perhaps half the price, and snagging a front-line starter for the rotation to boot. There are probably even better alternatives to signing Dye out there via trade market. Definitely an approach worth exploring. Although, I’ll try keeping my hopes up on being able to afford both Lackey and Bay through backloading.
I am a fan of the backloading, and if we do the backload, I will run around wearing an Omar is the best shirt.
Quite frankly, I’m nonplussed by all these options. They all seem like a waste of money. Just because they’re the best of what’s around, doesn’t justify those price tags. Conversely, just because we have dough, doesn’t mean we should spend just for the sake of spending. The only move that makes much sense to me, is looking into Adrian Gonzalez.
Know what I kind of change my opinion on getting Lackey, I think we should just splurge on offense because the league we’re in, teams in the NL have a difficult time in competing with offensive minded teams, we can fill our pitching needs with the b list pitchers, pinero, maquis etc..
Holliday’s career numbers away from Coors Field include a .280′s BA, a very pedestrian .800ish OPS and 1 homerun for every 30+ at bats. He’s not even close to being a 20 million a year player. Buyer beware because last year in St. Louis is a very small sample size.
If I could pick one position to spend FA money on, it would be a starting pitcher, and Lackey is clearly the best one on the market, but giving him big money for five years at this point in his career is insane. He got steadily better through his 20s, culminating in his huge 2007, age 28 season, but it’s been downhill since then. He’s been injured (and not odd freak or “fixable” injuries, but most likely chronic arm issues) each of the last two seasons and put up worse numbers than he has since 2004 even when he has pitched. Tying up a pitcher for big money through his age 35 season when both his age 29 and age 30 seasons point to future injury and decreased performance just seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Would it be the best move for 2010? Probably- but I wouldn’t be willing to risk losing serious value over the course of the next five years in return.
the mets don’t have the guns to get adrian gonzalez. can we end the pipe dreams, please? why do the padres need davis when they have baby ryan howard in kyle blanks who is ready to take over? they need pitching and lots of pitching which just happens to be something we need a lot of too so why would you ever entertain the thought of giving it away?
if the mets sign bay, they have to seriously consider paying lackey. for all the talk about next year’s class, there is a large likelihood beckett resigns with the sox and can we see how brandon webb rebounds from his shoulder ailments before we go gaga over him?
just as i pressed submit, i realised this should have gone in the adrian gonzalez thead.
I’m really tired of Metsblog propagating this idea that the Mets can only afford one of the big free agents. It just isn’t the truth, the Mets are able financially to sign all three if they wanted to… its not a matter of being unable to afford them.
Stop spreading this one of three idea to lower expectations.
Lackey and Bay, get it done Mets!
sure they can but the team needs more then two players.
I’m not suggesting they stop there.
Yes, because you know exactly how much the Mets make. Tell me, since you obviously have access to the books, how much does the bat boy make?
give me Holliday. I don’t care what he makes, i think he improves the team the most.
Hey Matt,
This is part of an article from Gordon Edes from Bostonespn.com:
——
The total value of the Red Sox’s offer Bay turned down was roughly the same four-year, $60 million contract he turned down in midsummer, according to a baseball source with knowledge of the negotiations. The difference, the source said, was in how the contract was structured, suggesting there may have been a vesting option in the earlier proposal.
The Red Sox have no intention of offering Bay a five-year deal, the source said. If another team — perhaps the New York Mets — elects to do so, the Red Sox assume Bay will leave Boston. “If another club offers him five years, my guess is he’ll take it in the next few days,” the source said.
—–
Is he implying that Boston offered a 4yr/$60MM + Vesting Option earlier in the summer and changed it or the Vesting Option was part of the package (meaning 3yr/$45MM + $15MM vesting option)? You can read the entire article on Espn.com:
http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4737363
Interesting article comparing Bay to Holliday…. Check the chart on the bottom
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/306792-bay-over-holliday-not-so-fast
Its only Home-Game data and its not that scientific…. But it seems Holliday would be better because his homeruns are out of any ballpark where as Bay’s arent quite that far
Counting on the chart Holliday would have had roughly 15Hrs at home if he were a Met last year…
Where as Bay would have had around 6 Homeruns at Citi…
Please get Holliday and not Bay… Ive always been weary of Bay’s lower average and this article doesn’t make me feel any more secure about Bay’s power…
couldn’t agree more, i love holliday, more power, 50 points higher in avg. im sick of this lackey bay crap. get holliday and a 2nd tier starter. if were in it at the deadline make a splash with a big name pitcher or gonzo.
well get the big pitcher next offseason, lackey isn’t it. not even close
Exactly, Next years Starting Pitchers look real good…
Becket, Webb, Halladay(maybe), Lee(again maybe), as Ace’s
and the 2nd Tier pitchers are
Arroyo, Blanton, Harang, Harden, Bonderman, Millwood, Vazquez, plus tons more
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html
Beckett, Lee and Halladay (if traded) have a very good chance of signing contract extensions before the season is over. Webb will need to prove he is healthy.
The second tier pitchers (assuming they all have healthy seasons), will command contracts between $12MM to $15MM. That being said, if the Mets have the chance to sign Lackey this off season they should do it. He is as good or better than the 2nd tier of the 2010 FA class. Even if the Aces (Beckett, Halladay and Lee) are available, the Mets won’t make a play there because of the price (think +$20MM).
Just lock a 1-2 punch of Santana and Lackey for the next 4-5 years, and start working on the farm system.
Rotation 2010:
LHP Santana
RHP Lackey
RHP Pelfrey
LHP Perez
RHP Maine
seriously, he too much of a risk, and wayyy to expensive for his level pitcher. webb is on the dbacks, he’s not signing an extension, he’s the guy to go after. focus on offence, we can patch together the staff till we go after someone huge, cuz then we’ll really have something special:
Santana
Marquis
Pelfrey
Maine
Niese (its gonna be perez cuz the medtes are too cheap to bench em, but thats what is should be lol)
Lackey at $15-16MM is a better investment than Marquis at $10MM. Risk? That’s part of the equation when talking about pitchers. Do you think neither Beckett, Halladay or Lee represent risks for a long term contract extension, probably at $20MM per season?
The DBacks just picked up an $8MM option, even after he missed *All* of 2009 season. He needs to prove he is healthy first, before talking about going after him.
lackey is a bigger risk, he’s had problems the last few years. and sure, every pitcher is a risk. but wouldn’t you have a real ace like lee, beckett, or webb for 20 mil over a year or two more, or lackey and his 3.4+ ERA for 16 mil next season.
and good point about marquis, maybe they should go for someone even cheaper
Let me just ask everybody, how much have these big name aquisitions helped The Mets in the last bunch of years? Shouldn’t we be focusing on strenghtining the farm, rebuilding, getting quality management and execs, and build a real dynasty?
With a good plan, they can do both…..compete in 2010, while strengthening the farm system.
No doubt, but this seems to be a pretty weak field of choices. I say we sign some low risk, high reward guys, and save some money. If a too good to refuse trade comes along, we do it. 100 mill for Holliday seems a ridiculous waste.
has anyone given a thought about Chein -Ming Wang?he would be great at Citi field with hitters pounding the ball into the infield.great back-end of the rotation fit for the Mets.
I’d Love Wang on an incentive laced deal based on IP and Starts