Brian from Fonzi Forever points out that Reds RHP Aaron Harang, statistically, is not much different than John Lackey, who just signed a five-year, $87 million deal with the Red Sox.
Yesterday, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times said the Reds asked the Dodgers for one or two players from their major-league roster in return for Harang.
…there HAS TO BE a match between the Reds and Mets… i guess it depends on Cincinnati’s goals, of course… but, the Mets are looking to acquire a second-tier pitcher; a set-up man; and they’d like to switch out Luis Castillo for a second baseman with better range… it just so happens four of the Reds richest contracts are harang, RHP Bronson Arroyo, reliever Francisco Cordero and 2B Brandon Phillips… the buzz during the GM Meetings in November had been that the Reds would look to trade a big contract or two, for less expensive major-league players, who can help now, in an effort to cut payroll…
Yesterday, Mark Healey of Baseball Digest said sources told him the Mets and Reds have been in talks regarding Arroyo, “and possibly two other players.”
…by the way, arroyo, phillips and cordero will earn around $30 million next season… arroyo can be cut loose for 2011; but phillips and cordero will still be under contract, earning a combined $23 million, after which they can both be bought out and sent to free agency…
…yes, it would be crazy creative, border-line stupid, yet potentially brilliant, if a team could send, say, Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez, who will cost $18 million each of the next two seasons, to the Reds for arroyo, phillips and cordero, saving the Reds $12 million this season, and $5 million next season, while replacing them with legitimate major-league talent… yes, this is far-fetched, and total mock-GM’ing, and i can’t recall the last time i saw a deal like that happen, but, the point is, the Mets and Reds fit one another’s needs, in some way, shape or form, and i would hope they discuss a way to help eachother out, because it looks like they can…
This is the kind of stuff that I like hearing about that makes me think Omar might not be as bad as the papers say he is. I’d be interested to see Phillips on the Mets.
Omar tends to be at his best during the offseason. However, given his shenanigans during the regular season – and going after one of their own no less – the NY press is being merciless toward him (and the Mets in general) this year.
I would trade any one of Maine, Perez or Pelfrey straight up for Harang, for several reasons:
1) Those three pitchers have each had one good season with the Mets, and they’ve been in the starting rotation for 2-3 years each.
2) Harang is an innings-eater, whereas those three usually tire by the 6th.
3) Harang has a proven track record as a #2 starter.
Obviously the risk here is that Harang is closer to the pitcher he was the last two years then the pitcher he was the two years before that.
Still, don’t you think the Reds would take Pelfrey or Maine straight up for Harang? They need to save money and its not like Pelf or Maine is without potential.
They’d jump at taking Pelfrey for Harang, They’d say yes before Omar could finish proposing it.
I would trade Maine, but I would rather not trade Pelfrey. The kid has talent and will turn the corner soon. If we got Harang and Phillips and we had to get rid of Pelfrey, well maybe then.
Lets strike Mike Pelfrey from the conversation, because it doesn’t make any sense and its only going to get people worked up.
Considering the other two pitchers, it would obviously be in the Mets best interest to trade Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo to the Reds, but I have a sense that if the Mets proposed that the Reds would insist on Maine instead of Perez. That would make it a bad deal.
My guess is Perez and Castillo alone wouldnt work for the three players in question. I would argue though that Perez, Castillo, Parnell and a decent minor leaguer would probably get it done. By including Parnell it essentially fills every hole they just created, while also saving them a ton of money. But because Brandon Phillips is involved in the deal, the Reds would be hard pressed to let him go without getting at least one quality prospect in the deal, hence the need to add a minor leaguer. Maybe someone like Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Francisco Pena.
If Omar traded Pelfrey for Harang I would be leading the pitchforks to get him thrown out of town. That would be among the worst moves ever made.
Worst moves ever made? Seriously? I’m pretty sure that’s the biggest exaggeration ever made. Granted, Maine for Harang would be a much better trade than Pelfrey for Harang, but I think people over value Mike Pelfrey. (I hope I’m eating my words 8 months from now)
We’re talking about a 26 year-old (Pelfrey) with a career 4.58 ERA. 3 of the 4 seasons he’s pitched in the major leagues, including last year, his ERA has been above 5.00. Other than a 2-3 month stretch in 2008, he has never come close to living up to expectations. You’re probably right, Pelfrey for Harang wouldn’t be the greatest deal ever made. However, we need somebody like Harang was in 2006-2007. Harang has had success in the past and it was derailed by injuries. He’s pitched in one of the worst pitching parks in the country.
OMG make this happen. Gotta replace 2B too then. Has Hudson been signed yet??
No, we will trade for Phillips
Between the two, I’d rather have Phillips. He’s younger hits for .275 average, can knock in 15 to 20 HRs and around 30+ SBs…
and better Defense IMO
If Omar found a way to get Phillips and one of Harang or Arroyo on this team for a reasonable cost…I would be very happy.
Signing Bay and adding Phillips in the lineup, while taking Castillo out, would be a huge upgrade this season. Phillips is a legit talent at 2B, offensively and defensively. And is still young, meaning he still has some speed left and I wouldnt have to hold my breath every time I see Castillo sprinting down the line (dude looks like he’s gonna fall apart just walking)
I totally agree with you. This would be a far better team than the one that entered the 2009 season. Don’t forget that on top of the Castillo or Phillips swap, having Arroyo or Harang over Perez makes this team better as well. Also, having Francisco Cordero as your setup man should at least be an even exchange for JJ Putz (though I won’t lie, my expectations were very high with Putz).
Phillips is one of the great 2B in the game today. A true force in their lineup. I have a hard time imagining that the Reds would let him go though. I suppose the chance to rid themselves of $20+ million in contracts without eating a significant part of it might be a real motivator. Especially with some of the recent deals such as Juan Pierre where the Dodgers had to eat 70% of his contract.
Matt , if the Mets could pull off such a deal like you stated and getting rid of Ollie and Castillo in the same trade I promise I wouldn’t ask for anything else for Christmas … ok well maybe besides Bay or Holliday .
I’m really skeptical of this happening, mainly because it make too much sense. But, if it did happen, I’d be ridiculously happy. Arroyo/Harang, Phillips and possilbly Cordero on this team would be a great upgrade.
BUT, we still would need to add Bay/Holliday plus Marquis. I don’t know why but I’m sold on Marquis and view him as a much better pitcher than Pinero. Plus, he’d sign for 3 yrs, compared to Pinero’s 4yrs.
I have a feeling that once the ball starts rolling on signings/trades, it’s going to pick up speed pretty quick.
Marquis would be a GREAT addition to this rotation.
http://dearwilpons.blogspot.com/2009/12/take-chance-on-jason-marquis.html
The tarde I would try is
Maine, Castillo, Evans and cash for part of Castillo’s contract.
for
Harang and Phillips.
This would solve our second base and pitching problem while helping the Reds financially.
Trade**
They’d probably want Pagan and Maine for Harang.
2 for 1. I wouldn’t do that.
If the Reds trade Brandon Phillips as part of a package in exchange for Perez and Castillo, they should suspended from the MLB b/c clearly they don’t want to compete. Then, the suggestion is that a serviceable starting pitcher would also be coming with Phillips?? come on, there is no way.
If they got rid of Phillips it would clearly be as part of the deal that is in place to cut payroll so they can go after someone else who might be better than Phillips; to accuse them of not wanting to compete because they’re considering trading away a good ballplayer for reasons that we don’t know is a bit much.
The unanimous joy expressed at this “potential” deal has nothing to do with the holidays … its because it would be incredibly one-sided in favor of our Mets. Phillips is a really good player.
You are right that it would be unfair to say Reds don’t want to compete, and I don’t b/c there is no way they trade Phillips for Ollie/Luis.
I think that they are talking w/Mets b/c Reds would love to get rid of Harang. He is essentially a one year 15M contract (i think 12.5M 2010 and 2.5M buyout for 2011), and he’s not pitched well lately.
Luis for Harang? I could see that, saves Reds money, creates vacancy for us and gives us an arm. Perez for Phillips? laughable. More likely would take Ike Davis for Phillips.
Yes Elvis, but in today’s baseball/economic climate you have to realize that things are not as black and white. The Reds have a limited budget, and money creates opportunities for them to get better, and to potentially keep some of their own top talent. If trading Phillips allows them to save $20 million or more, all while getting serviceable and decent talent in return, it might be more enticing for them than you think.
If Phillips were not involved in these discussions then they couldn’t hope for more than a few low level prospects plus the need to swallow as much as 1/2 of Harangs contract if they were to hope to move him. The same can be said for Arroyo or Cordero. The chance for them to move 2 of these 3 without covering any of their contracts has got to be very promising.
No way that Phillips cost Davis. If the Mets are eating Phillips contract, you’re talking someone like Tejada.
Or Flores
davidus, statnut – guys maybe you are right … or maybe we are contemplating different scenarios … but phillips is making 6.75M next year, 11M the following year, and harang one year total 15M, total 33M. If we are sending back castillo and perez, total 36M over next two years, where is this big financial incentive to Reds?
And I disagree big time that you are getting Philips in exchange for Ruben Tejada.
I’m talking about a Harang/Phillips scenario. I think Castillo and Perez going in that trade is a pipe dream. I could see Harang/Phillips for Castillo/Tejada. Reds save 15.75 million this year, 13 million next year.
Not to mention, Phillips isn’t good enough to warrant a top level prospect.
I would love an off-season like this. Trading Castillo, Maine and Evans for Phillips and Arroyo or Harang would be sweet. We can also add another pitcher like Sheets or Marquis. While getting them and Bay or Holliday and Molina and another bullpen arm, we’ll beat the Phillies. Omar make this happen. I’ll call them up if you want.
I love the thinking, and as much as I’d like to see it happen, trades like that don’t seem to happen in baseball that often, salary for worse salary. This particular set-up is more of an NBA-type trade. I think some sort of prospect would have to head to Cinci, especially if Phillips were coming back, even more-so if they were taking on Castillo.
I’d even think of sending another player, ie Evans, and cash (to help out with Castillo’s contract), to make it more appealing. To be able to Arroyo (my preference of Harang), Phillips, and a very good bullpen arm, as well as signing Bay would be quite a haul.
And Molina, possibly Marquis or Sheets, and a couple of players, that would be a awesome team.
I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but if we get Brandon Phillips our lineup would have some depth and could smack any Phillie pitcher not named Halladay.
Reyes
Phillips
Beltran
Bay
Wright
Franceour
Molina
Murphy
P
phillips isn’t really a 2-hitter, with a career OBP of .312. In fact, half that lineup doesn’t get on base (though has some pop). Add Delgado instead of Murphy…now that’s a lineup that would score some runs.
Haha, I have to admit thats a pretty nasty lineup. Although I don’t really see Phillips in the 2-hole. What about this:
1) Reyes
2) Murphy
3) Beltran
4) Bay
5) Wright
6) Phillips
7) Franceour
8) Molina
You could even move up Beltran.
Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay, Phillips/Franceour, Molina.
I’d go with Reyes, beltran Wright Bay, Franceour, Phillips, Molina….. Just to break up the K machines in Franceour and Monlina.
Pagan, Castillo, Ollie, Nick Evans,Niese for Arroyo, Harang, Phillips?
No, I don’t want both of them. I take Marquis or Sheets instead. Let’s get only one of Arroyo or Harang and Phillips.
Reyes
Phillips
Beltran
Bay/Holliday
Wright
F-Core
Molina
Murphy
P
Santana
Sheets/Arroyo/Harang
Arroyo/Harang/Marquis
Pelfrey
Perez
You trade Maine and get another bullpen arm. That’s a beast team. I don’t know who could beat except for the Yanks and Boston.And the Phils when they have Doc against Perez but that’s all I could think of.
Don’t think that would get it done, but I like it.
I dont think they will trade both pitchers, but it would be nice if we could get both. I think it would be huge if we could trade Ollie in this trade. Maybe even if we sent some money their way?
Too much positive energy around here this morning. Everyone feeling ok?
I was thinking the same thing. I have to agree with Elvis, in that, the joy on the board is because of any potential trade with the Reds in which we would acquire Phillips + Harang/Arroyo because it’s so one sided for the Mets, lol.
Don’t let this joy fool you. We’re Met fans, the other shoe is bound to drop sometime!
Check out the career on base percentages for both players…. .312 for phillips, .348 for hudson.
Their defense is probably about even in my opinion.
I hate low obp players.
Yeah, I saw that too. And ironically what was Castillo’s last year? .389 or something?
He only struck out 75 times last year though
Yeah, that’s impressive, and his SO’s have been dropping significantly for the last three years. Shows at 28 he’s becoming somewhat more disciplined/selective.
You guys beat me to it. Phillips strikes out less than Hudson but more than Castillo. Now for Walks…
Hudson: 62
Phillips: 44
Castillo: 69
Even though Phillips has lees walks, he is the better hitter because he puts the ball in play and gets hits. I wouldn’t have to worry about Phillips hitting unlike Castillo when I have to cross my fingers he’ll bloop something.
you wouldn’t hit phillips in the 2 then I assume, Murphy in the 2? Phillips in the six? Then Murphy would have to revert back to his patient ways which might work hitting in the 2 hole.
phillips has more pop, but that’s the only area in which he’s a better hittler than castillo. He’s a stronger hitter, not a better hitter. And he’ll be 29, so it’s unliklely he’ll radically grow.
I disagree. He’s still young enough to be improving as a hitter. His athleticism is not diminishing. Castillo’s is though. I have no faith in Castillo improving upon what he did last year, at best it would be dupilcated, but thats a big IF. Castillo only gets on base because he walks. The guy’s only hope of getting a hit is thru the infield. The OF defense plays him like a girl in slow-pitch softball. Phillips can actually drive the ball. he can actually hit the ball. Different styles of hitters, true, but Phillips is a big upgrade offensivly over Castillo.
Hudson is solid, but he’s declining and not getting any younger. He’s better than Castillo, but not better than Phillips.
Either way, I dont think the Reds trade Phillips unless we give them something of value.
the main difference is that BP hits more fly balls, and some of those leave the yard (not saying he doesn’t have some real power, though). like I said somewhere else, I think he’s an overall upgrade, but in an imaginary lineup where we’ve added BP, bengie and Bay, we basically have four guys who make outs at a substandard rate (Murph, Franc, BP, and Bengie), and that’s before considering the pitcher. I love that those guys have pop, but I’d rather have one more OBP guy and one less big-pop/out machine.
Also his rookie year with Cleveland is dragging down his career line. That .242 OBP in over 300 AB’s is brutal for a career line. His OBP’s in Cincy have been .324, .331, .312, .329. Taking out his career numbers in Cleveland he’s got a .320 career OBP.
He’s showing good signs also. His walks have gone up the last 4 years while his K’s have gone down.
Phillips OPS is about 40 points higher last year year then Castillo and his WAR is last season was 3.2 compared to Castillo’s 1.6. And Philips average the last 3 years is 3.7 compared to Castillo’s 1.3. He’s almost a full 2 wins better then Castillo.
im not shocked one bit to hear that. Castillo has a great eye at the plate. But, offensively, his game ends right there.
BP’s WARP3 was 3.3, LC’s was 2.5 (I think WARP3′s better because it adjusts for most every factor). I agree that he’d be an overall improvement, but not radically.
some of you guys are nothing short of delusional with your trade proposals
I tend to agree, and I do think this needs to be simplified. If you are going to make a deal, it’s going to be with fewer players moving.
Harang is due 12.5 million in 2010, and has a similar option for 2011 (or a 2.5 mill buyout). Essentially, you are looking at almost 15 million for Harang in 2010 – or 25 million to have him for 2 years. That is pretty hefty, even in todays market, but not horrifying when you consider Randy Wolf just signed for 13M per for 3 years.
If you want to go pure salary relief for them, you can offer them Castillo, and even if they release Castillo they are saving 6-7 million per season for 2 years.
Another option would be Ollie Perez and cash, which I feel the Mets will be somewhat reluctant to do (and so would the Reds), because that makes Harang very expensive, and Ollie is a wild card that can swing the deal in either direction.
When you throw Phillips into the mix, things get sticky. Phillips is due 7M this coming season, which isn’t bad for a decent 2B with 20 HR pop, but then he shoots up to 11M next year. Castillo for Phillips straight up makes very little sense for the Reds, and adding significant cash doesn’t make sense for the Mets, because Phillips and his low OBP just aren’t worth 12M per season over the next 2.
Something like Maine & Castillo for Harang & Phillips might work for both teams. I’m not rooting for this deal though, because I like Maine and don’t want to move him when his value is at its lowest, and I’m not a fan of Phillips, who I do not think is a very smart baseball player and a guy who doesn’t get on base enough. His 20 HR in Cinnci might turn into 12 HR in Citi Field, and the next thing you know you have a subpar player at 2B and Maine is getting 15 wins with the Reds.
I think Arroyo is the guy to target. Unlike Harang, who has injury issues, Arroyo is your innings eater rubber arm guy. He can handle NY with his eyes closed and is more of a pitch to contact kind of guy that may do well in a large yard like Citi. He is due 11M this year, with an 11M option or 2M buyout, so in essence, if you take Arroyo you are saving the Reds 13M next year.
Cordero is another solid option because he’s due some serious coin. 25 million over the next two years to be exact.
So if you take Arroyo and Cordero, you are saving the Reds a ton of money, and you are filling two needs. Arroyo is especially nice because removes your need for a Pineiro type pitcher and for only 1 year of commitment with an option.
You’re right on it.
That would be fantastic… I don’t see it happening….. That would be fantastic…. You fill in 2 needs and get rid of 2 problems taking on basically cordero’s horrific contract, which should improve your bullpen. I’d sweeten the deal by taking Harang who’s contract is worse
If Bay gets done today, or holliday next week whichever, then this deal goes down. It would be a pretty good off-season. Phillips is a monster at 2nd base. Harang is a solid pitcher. You might still need another SP though. But you lose the mental midget Ollie, and your rotation looks like Johan, Harang, Pelf, Maine? But phillips just fits right in the lineup. Your bullpen would look very good with K-Rod and Cordero, Igihashia, Parnell, Stokes, feliciano.
i don’t know what the net offensive gain would be if we subtracted 90 points of OBP from our 2 hole and add 30 hr, but i do know phillips is a far more entertaining player than luis castillo. that’s gotta count for something.
I’m with you. When the Mets played the Reds, Phillips was an enjoyable player to watch, both at the plate and in the field.
Yes, I also like his batting stance, it looks like Soriano’s of the Cubs or Sheffields.
I agree that Phillips would be an upgrade overall 9entertainment factor included), but I HIGHLY doubt he’ll hit 30 out playing half his games in Citi.
30 what hr’s? No way. Probably 20
I’d even take the under on 20 (but I’d be happy to lose that bet)
Do you think that the Reds would want our Castillo and Perez trash without some minor league talent? Would you be willing to trade Niese/Holt or a top minor leaguer if we could dump both Castillo and Perez while picking up Arroyo and Philips.
Good question. I think I would based on the philosophy that you should typically trade unproven major league talent for proven major league talent.
I would be willing to include a prospect like Holt in order to trade Ollie and Castillo for Arroyo and Phillips.
I do believe matt just suggested one of the greatest mock trade ideas this site has seen in a long time…
However, I don’t think they would want Perez. I think Maine or Pelfrey so I’ll give them Maine. We can get another SP, like Sheets or Marquis and we’ll have a great rotation. Plus the addition of another bullpen arm, we’ll also have a solid bullpen.
Nope there have been way worse including phillips the last 4 days.
Matt’s is feasible because the mets are assuming so much in contracts while giving them MLB players. Most of the others were castillo, Perez, 2 prospects for Phillips and Arroyo.
actually, they would probably trade both pitchers based on their current salaries … but, not in one deal – Arroyo is a workhorse, albeit Harang has slightly better career stats (and hasn’t pitched 200+ innings in 2 years).
Doubt Perez has a chance to be traded to anyone this year, unless we eat a portion of his salary. I look at him as dead money this year … we need him to bounce back for many reasons, not the least of which is to help us win games.
Don’t discount Pagan, he is actually a fairly valuable commodity to have … and could be leveraged in several deals.
Cordero, Arroyo, and Phillips for Maine, Pagan, Castillo, Parnell/Stoner and Reese Havens or Ruben Tejada? Reds will want some prospects if they´re giving up Phillips, and Havens/Tejada + Stoner might help.
Sorry Guys, but this idea that John Lackey is “not much different” than John Lackey statistically is bunk. Check out baseball-reference.com. Not only is Lackey significantly better in almost every category, he’s done it in the American League.
Not that I wouldn’t mind Harang, but Matt, what are you talking about?
they’re not so different in other ways besides statistics too.
John Lackey IS not much different than John Lackey. Maybe not the same as Harang, but hey…
;-}
LoL good call. The absurdity of Cerrone’s comments made me lose my head. He’s really reaching here. Lackey and Harang are not at all similar. Not in any statistical category.
your not gonna get the reds to agree to us sending mediocre majore league players for their good major league players. Gonna have to add at least SOME interesting young players. whether thats pagan, holt, niese idk. But the idea that ollie and castillo is going to get you a few valuable pieces is laughable.
By the way, i like castillo but Phillips might have literally twice as much range as him. Id be more than happy to sacrifice some OBP for 20 more homeruns, 10 more steals, and significantly better range, in a younger body as well.
You are right.
Love the name.
Matt,
By the same token, if the Braves are looking to dump salary, we could ask for a Lowe for Perez swap. I don’t think Atlanta would ever go for that (I believe they’re hoping to bring back an OF bat for Lowe and wouldn’t want to trade Lowe within the division) but it would save Atlanta $21M over the next 3 years.
Anyone bother to check Phipplis’ stats outside of the GABP?
BA: 0.251
OBP: 0.293
SLP: 0.394
OPS: 0.687
not pretty.
…but he is not luis castillo…enuf said…get the guy but dont go too crazy…