Last weekend, Mets GM Omar Minaya spoke at the 21 Days of Clemente benefit in New York, according to a report for NY SportsDay from Howard Goldin.
According to Goldin, Minaya said he is pursuing free-agent OF Matt Holliday, but, “It seems to be easier to make a deal for Jason Bay.”
…i guess, but, while the Mets sit idle and wait for bay, i read Cardinals fans and media who wound equally frustrated as they all wait for holliday… i wonder how long it will be before the two teams try to shake things up, with the Cardinals reaching out to bay and the Mets reaching out for holliday…
…i had heard omar initially preferred holliday to bay, seeing him as a more complete, long-term player, and i agree… but, they feel bay’s swing is more of a sure thing in Citi Field, and he can be had for a more realistic contract… but, if bay is insisting on five years, and if the Mets feel they must sign one of these two players, again, at that point, i’d rather them just up the years and go for holliday, who i feel is a better hitter, fielder and base runner, and a player i can live with for several years…
Later, according to Goldin, Minaya said his starting rotation would likely be Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Jon Niese, and possibly a free agent.
This past weekend, Buster Olney of ESPN said free-agent Joel Pineiro is the Mets top target.
To read more about Minaya’s night at 21 Days of Clement, read Goldin’s report, here.
What I have been saying all along is that they have to make an offer to Holliday…make it public and lite a fire under these guys to have one of them step up!
They should make an initial offer of 5 years $80 million, with the idea of eventually going to 6 years $102 mill. If they could backload the deal a little it´d be great, with all the $$ the Mets have coming off the books after 2011.
Then lower some of the OF fences a little bit–16 to 18 feet is very high…lower them to 10-11 feet.
The Red Sox already offered Holiday 5 @85. What would be the point of offering 5 @80?
I wouldn’t play around…make the first offer 6 years $102ml.
I agree, be agressive early. With an offer that agressive, Bay will have to capitulate quickly before Holliday excepts. At the very least it forces the Cards to pay out the nose.
Dave – Can you clarify what money you are referring to that is coming off the books in 2011? I haven’t done the research, but isnt that the last year of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran’s contracts? Also, Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo? Anyone else?
If so, I imagine the Mets are going to make strong pushes to retain both Reyes and Beltran players. I would have to imagine that Reyes will cost us more than he currently does, whereas there is a chance that Beltran will make less, but I imagine the payroll difference will be a wash.
So essentially the payroll flexibility will be Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, which should be about $18 million. That’s not a ton of money.
Well 18 million would basically cover almost an entire year of Holliday at 18 to 20 million. I would assume that in part would be factored in if you backload a contract knowing that at that point you would have 18 million to displace some of the added cost. While I hope Beltran stays on after 2011 I would say it is not a slam dunk. If his knees continue to go downhill there may be a situation where he physically cannot play the OF on a day in day out basis so they may have to let him walk. At that point if not traded you would have FMart or Nieuwheis ( I know I messed up the spelling) to play CF at league minimum.
Ollie P. $12mil
Beltran $20
KRod $13
Castillo $6.25
plus- if we sign a catcher to a 2 year deal this offseason.
plus- Reyes if we didn´t pick up his option (highly unlikely).
That´s $50 million plus. Yes, we´ll have to replace some of those players with FA signings or trades. But we do have some young guys who could be taking over, and thus keeping the payroll down (Havens, Davis, Thole, Tejada, Nieuwenhuis, FMart, Mejia, Familia, maybe Everts). I´m not sure if they´ll re-sign Beltran if his knees continue to be a problem–he has a serious bone-on-bone knee condition that isn´t likely to get better.
I think to be honest that Beltran, Reyes and K-Rod will remain with the Mets.
Reyes will be a priority, but neither Beltran or K-Rod are locks to return. Unless they get huge pay cuts (Boras is Beltran’s agent, see Damon), those two players may not return after 2011.
BTW, Sizemore is a FA after 2011 as well and should cost less than Beltran (he is 6 years younger).
For some reason, I hope I’m right. Sizemore is great but Beltran is irreplaceable. Next year we can resign Reyes and get Webb or Beckett.
I love Beltran, but he will be 35 (vs Sizemore 29) when his contract is up. Boras will be pressing the Mets to re-sign Beltran between $17-20MM per season, same as Damon current situation with the Yankees.
Sizemore could cost aprx $12-15MM. A lot of things can change until that 2011. But seeing how Boras works, it may be in the best interest of the team to move on….just like the Yankees just did with Damon.
First things first, sign Holiday who will become part of the core for 6-7 years (vs 4 years of Bay) and secure those key players: Santana, Wright, Reyes and Holiday long term. Then you have two years to see what happens with Beltran and KRod, and if they will/should be part of the future.
Very true and good point.
KRod has a vesting clause for the $17M
$51.25M
- $17M (KRod’s vesting)
- $1.25M (Santana’s raise)
- $1M (Wright’s raise)
- $2M (Reyes’ raise if option exercised)
=
$30M net
I don’t think the Mets will ever pickup KRod’s option. Just too much money for a closer. Wright and Reyes should also get extended before that off season to secure the future as a Met.
I agree. IMO, Reyes, Wright, Santana and Beltran should finish their careers with the Mets. Not saying they will but I hope so.
it may not be their choice there is a vesting clause.
If the Mets pick up his options, is because they had great years from 2010-11. And that could still be tough. I don’t see that happening.
—-
2012 option becomes guaranteed with:
* 55 games finished in 2011, and
* 100 games finished in 2010-11, and
* doctors declare Rodriguez healthy after 2011
Rodriguez receives $3.5M termination buyout if 2012 option does not become guaranteed
—–
Basically KRod will cost the Mets about $15MM in 2011. Just too much money for a closer.
Maybe they can lower the price down to 10mill.
Maybe, or maybe they could develop Parnell for that role and invest less money for a younger closer.
or that.
All this talk about Bay not wanting to be a Met, but consider the following from Bay’s perspective:
- This is his first big contract. He will have another contract after this one. So signing on to a team whose stadium will reduce his offence making the next contract worth less.
- On the day he is offered the contract the man offering the contract says “we feel he is cheaper and will allow us to address other needs” (paraphrasing). Way to stroke his ego Omar.
- the aforementioned contract offerrer says he thinks Bay is easier to sign (why didn’t Omar the court jester just call Bay’s agent a girlyman?)
Isn’t this a little like telling your prom date’s father that the reason you’re taking his daughter is because she’s cheaper than taking the head cheerleader and wondering why they’re less than enthuasiastic about the situation than you are?
Great point Sylow59. You made a great point there explaining Bay’s point of view.
Thanks; see I don’t always bite. LOL
Sylow I liked the analogy at the end.
No, I’m giving you a compliment b/c you are a poster who takes time and shows proof. Some people couldn’t even think about this. :)
I was telling you the past two nights were specific to the plan posting
:)
Please get Holliday. No he won’t suddenly make us a WS contender but he is going to be much better than Bay. Not to mention this wouldn’t be just a 2010 move. There is a very nice pitching crop next year if you get holliday and some stop gap guys like garland or a low risk high reward guy like wang or sheets maybe we can get the wild card, if not we have a pretty good lineup going into 2011 and we wouldn’t need to worry about landing some big fish on offense and more so at pitching. If we DON’T sign holliday now it will only make next offseason that much harder and expensive.
how can you look at Holliday’s career numbers including his numbers outside of Coors Field and numbers not hitting after Albert Pujols and say “he is going to be much better than Bay.”
There is nothing factual that backs that up whatsoever.
no youre right i dont have some magical stat or case study. God forbid I base an opinion on what I see with my eyes. I have played and watched baseball my whole life. Holliday is a better baseball player from top to bottom than Bay, if you disagree with that then I don’t need to ask you how much baseball experience you have outside of your living room sofa. They are basically a wash in the power, but that is it every other aspect of the game, Holliday does better and he is younger. Is that good enough for you?
Ridiculous. You win because your ego is self inflated, congrats.
Ridiculous? whats ridiculous? please elaborate. Please explain to me why Bay is better, or why Holliday is not better.
spare me the ego nonsense. All you do on this blog is respond to other peoples honest legitimate opinions with negative comments as if you are some kind of blog sage. Tell me, what’s it like to never be wrong?
The fact is, Matt Holliday is a better offensive player then Bay.
Look at Holliday’s road OPS, and OPS+ from 2006 to 2009. (For some reason you want to discount hit STL numbers, which is silly considering he hit after Albert. Fine, Pujols is on base a ton but the majority of 3 hitters are going to be around a .400 OBP so there’s not a huge difference)
2006 – OPS 819, OPS+ 116
2007 – OPS 860, OPS+ 130
2008 – OPS 892, OPS+ 145
2009 – OPS 909, OPS+ 168 (Both AL & NL, home and away)
Now you don’t have to be a statistician to notice the trend amongst his OPS from year to year. He started out as a Coors field guy but has gotten his road OPS and OPS+ to trend upwards each of the last 4 years. Explain to me why we WOULDN’T want this?
Here are Bay’s 4 year OPS and OPS + numbers. These are his total stats since he played in a fair park in Pittsburgh, and a favorable park in Boston.
2006 928 OPS, 138 OPS+
2007 746 OPS, 94 OPS+
2008 895 OPS, 134 OPS+
2009 921 OPS, 134 OPS +
Holliday’s 2008 road numbers and total 2009 numbers were better then ANY of Bay’s last 4 years. Throw in the idea that Bay may have been playing for his first big payday and not to expect that level of production and I think Holliday is the clear better hitter. Obviously, when you throw in Holliday’s total stats including Coors it turns into a land slide.
Nice post!
Bay road numbers:
2006: 22 HR / .925 / 143
2007: 14 HR / .766 / 104 (injured)
2008: 13 HR / .862 / 124
2009: 21HR / .904 / 144
Holliday road HRs:
2006: 12
2007: 11
2008: 10
2009: 8
I’d haved to say that Bay offers a lot more HR potential than does Holliday. Given the Mets need power it is clear Bay is the better fit.
Well no hitter compares to Pujols but with the Mets you have DW and Beltran. I think Holliday will be about the same with the Mets as he was with the Cards.
Worst. Rotation. Ever.
I wouldn’t go that far. There have been some pretty bad rotations out there. A healthy Santana and middle of the road from the rest gets you around 60 wins not counting wins from your bullpen. I would guess the 1962 Mets would take that rotation in a heartbeat.
I would also add that the rotation listed is as of now. I highly doubt we do not add a guy via FA or trade.
I’d agree, they will get somebody for the rotation, and worst case both Igarashi, and Escobar have experience as starters so it’s not like they don’t have options.
I disagree,……………2 words,…….TIM REDDING! UGH, ENOUGH SAID!
our rotation now or in response to my post above you? if its in response to my post above a rotation of santana, sheets, pelfrey, garland, perez isnt dominant but its definitely a competitive rotation. The current rotation of santana pelfrey perez maine niese i agree is absolutely atrocious.
BTW, you boys might as well cross John Garland of the list as it’s well known his desire to pitch on the West Coast. We would have to seriously overpay to get him to come here and frankly he’s not the kind of pitcher I would overpay for. Sheets makes the most sense out of the FA options left. I have zero interest in signing Pineiro to anything beyond 2 years, and I really don’t want him at that, but I could live with it.
No, I’m referring to the Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, Niese rotation. Santana is a lock, obviously. And I like Pelf but he’s not a #2 guy. Perez is a headcase that can either get you 17 wins or 10. Maine is coming off an injury so you can’t pencil him in for anything b/c you don’t know how he’ll bounce back. And I wouldn’t mind the idea of Niese as our 5th guy if we had a more solid and reliable 2-4.
With an improvement on offense I would confident in penciling in Pelf, Maine, Perez and Niese for 10 wins a piece. That gives you 40. You add in between 15 to 20 from Johan and you have 55 to 60 wins. That is actually a good number from your starters as you figure the pen will get you 15 to 20 at least. That rotation is far from the worst ever. Would it get us to the playoffs? It would depend. You get a few breaks and you could be around 85 to 90 wins. Win you the World Series? Most likely not unless one or two of Pelf, Maine, Perez and Niese takes a step up to a new level.
But like I said I doubt that is the starting day rotation. A FA or trade will be made. It is not the worst rotation ever and far from atrocious.
Maine already came back last season and looked good once his arm strength started to come back he should be fine, but in the end I’m not sure he is still on this team by mid February. I gotta feeling that if they sign Maya (still a big if at this point) that Maine will be traded, but who knows,…….time will tell.
Really?
Worse than Glavine, Maine, Orlando Hernandez, Trachsel and Fill in the Blank, otherwise known as the staff that got the Mets to the 2006 NLCS? One win within a world series?
Not the greatest staff but my only concerns are is Johan Santana truly going to be healthy and can John Maine pitch a full season. I have a lot of confidence that Mike Pelfrey will bounce back from the rough finish he had in 2009 and a healthy Oliver Perez can be very effective.
I’d love to see the Mets make a big addition via a solid trade but it is not the worst rotation by any stretch of the imagination.
Okay Omar, since your premise has been proved wrong–that is, Bay is not the easier signing, obviously–then make a move for Holliday. Trying to make this into rocket science when it isn’t!
Problem is Boras is not moving on Holliday until Bay sets the floor of the market unless he is given no choice which would be it is mid January and Bay is still sitting at home waiting for a mysterious better offer than the Mets. Bay needs to realize he waits to long Boras will start looking to get his guy signed and then Bay might be up a creek without a paddle.
Finally!!! They should have done this a long time ago.
Omar is playing this right, no need to overpay for either one, no one really wants to spends what both of these players want, what we should do is get Sheets and another pitcher while waiting on Bay and Holliday
I think the fan base needs to realize that once the mets offer Holliday a contract and that sits in limbo for a few weeks, this gives bay more bargaining power. At least now the Mets can say that they can still offer Holliday a contract.
With Boras as his agent, I also think it is clear that Holliday’s contract will be dragged out and he will only sign after Bay signs.
I’m not sure what bay is waiting for. Even if the Red Sox get back in, they were hesitant on 4 years. He will not get 5 from them.
I’d say they should give bay an ultimatum and stick to it. If he doesn’t accept, go after Holliday. If that doesn’t work, try through a trade. There is less than 2 months until spring training and they still need a pitcher and decide if murphy will be their every 1B, which I doubt.
At this point barring a miracle where Prince Fielder or AGon end up on the Mets my guess is Murph is the 1B with at most a RH compliment. No one one the market at 1B is worth the money they want and there is no need to sign a medicore guy to a multi year deal when Ike could be ready as soon as mid season if he hits in AAA like he did last year at A, AA and the Arizona Fall league.
Not too mention there isn’t any 1B on the market that gives you any more than Murphy can, so why sign anyone to a multi year deal?
Look at last season. SI predicted the Mets would win the WS with Murphy in LF and a near terrible rotation. It wasn’t terrible but close. Well, now we chances Omar. I know last year, we lost because of injuries but look at 08′ we had like 29 blown saves. If we won half of those we would have had more than 100 wins. we should get 2 FA pitchers. I think Sheets is a must now. He is a big risk but I think it is worth it. Give him 6mill with 6mill in incentives. We can also try and get another Fa. Try Garland. He is consistent and is cheap. Although he might not want to leave the west coast.
Sadly, what we (and Bay and Holiday) are waiting for is the Yankees to sign a left fielder. Once they are officially out of the equation, it won’t be long on Bay and Holiday.
Omar said the right thing, he told all his pitchers that he has confidence in them being in the rotation, and didn’t tell any free agent “You’re my first choice” and hurt his bargaining position.
This guy is dumber than dumb. Yeah, it’s real “easier to make a deal for Bay.” You only made an offer to him like 4 weeks ago and have yet to hear back from him. I’m sure he’s dying to play here (sarcasm).
And that’s an awesome rotation too Omar. You can really go to battle with that staff.
Omar u r a dickey!!
Who really has a great rotation in the NL anyway, what pitchers do you want, there’s none out there besides risky Sheets and meh pitchers like Pineiro.
the rest of the NL East (outside Washington I guess) that’s for sure. It’s time to stop fiercly defending these guys. The fact of the matter is Omar has done a dreadful job. And I’m a huge Met fan and have been my whole life. Unfortunately, this is the truth and the situation we are in.
How is that possibly for sure, you have no idea how the Phillies who have the deepest rotation will fare in 2010, who knows if Halladay just roles or stumbles, what if Hamels does not bounce back after a mediocre 2009.
The Braves traded their most effective starting pitcher and are banking on the idea that Tommy Hanson is definitely ready for primetime.
Minaya and the Mets could stand to make moves, but the moves should be good ones, not ones just because they can be made. I’d rather the Mets do nothing and Minaya lose his job in 2010 than the Mets make a series of bungled ill fated 2002-esque Steve Phillips moves.
Halladay stumble? When has this guy throughout his career ever “stumbled?” Tommy Hanson proved he is ready for prime time last year if you ask me. I would take Tommy Hanson over ever Mets starter not named Santana. And Halladay at the very least is equal to Santana (probably a little better). Again, i am a Met fan, but lets be realistic here. Please. The fact of the matter is both those teams have VASTLY superior starters than the Mets. It isn’t even close.
That’s all based on the assumption that everything that went wrong in 2009 will continue to go wrong in 2010, there is nothing that prevents the same bumps being hit by the competition. And sure Halladay has not had struggles in his career, he has also never pitched in a situation with ANY expcetations at all, so lets just see how it plays out. As far as Hanson, he seems fairly talented, but the list of pitchers who were poised to be the second coming after 20 major league starts is pretty deep. The amount that actually were ready is small.
I would not say the Phillies have Vastly superior starting pitching. They have a Dominate pitcher in Halladay… So do the Mets in Johan… They have a guy who’s slotting #2 that’s coming off a disappointing season in Hamels, so do the Mets in Pelfrey… They have a 3,4,5 which are innings eaters with no Upside in Happ (don’t believe the hype of a 27 year old rookie with no fastball), Blanton, and Moyer? They have 1 guy with an under 4 ERA and 4 guys with an Over 4 ERA… Hey look so do the mets..
Phillies win because their offense can score, and score in bunches top to bottom…..
Atlanta has a better pitching staff then the Mets. Hanson, Jurjins, Lowe, Kawakimi and Hudson are 5 very good pitchers. Atlanta has ZERO offense though. Their Outfield will be Melky (4th outfielder) McCouth, and Scheffer(5th outfielder)… Omar Infatnte at 2nd and Martin Prado at 1st… Come on! They are currently built like the S.F. Giants. They score 4 runs they win cause their pitching is that good. But can they score 4 runs, with that offense…
The Phils may have ¨innings eaters with no upside¨ at 3,4,5, but the Mets don´t. In fact, the Mets top 3 starters pitched fewer innings last year than the top 3 on any other team in the NL except the Padres. And the 4-5 starter positions were a mess. Innings eaters save the bullpen– all they need to do is be average pitchers and keep their teams in the game.
Oh I agree. It’s the whole reason for 2 years now I’ve wanted Jon Garland. You need 1-2 guys in the 4-5 spots who will just eat innings.
You can’t go by last year alone with innings for the Mets. Johan typically makes 30+ starts with near 200 innings. Pelfrey is a work horse if nothing more. Ollie P will make 25+ starts this year. And your 4 & 5 spots will be a mess when you lose your Ace, other SPers in Ollie, Maine, Neise, Nieve…. Not many teams if any could throw out 7 SPers and have a 4-5 resemble anything.
i don’t care what kind of year Hamels is coming off, you cannot compare a former NLCS and WS MVP winner (i’m pretty sure he won both, not sure) with Mike Pelfrey, which is i guess who the Mets have penciled in as #2 right now. Please. Stop.
Why not. Both have had experience, both have had a year of good sucess on ’07 and a year of poor success in ’08. I don’t care what meangless postseason awards Hamels won want to know who else has won those awards: “The previous double-winners were Willie Stargell in 1979, Darrell Porter in 1982, Orel Hershiser in 1988 and Liván Hernández in 1997.” Stellar group of hall of famers there.
Both were looked at as #2 pitchers heading into last year. Both took a MAJOR step back. Maybe there is something to this Verducci effect.
sorry that was good year in ’08 and poor year in ’09.
actually according to the quote he said “it seems to be easier” which is another way of saying, Matt Holliday’s agent makes the process of inking a deal extremely difficult and protracted.
Exactly what he meant. He’s dealt with Boras in the past, and he will in the future. Everyone knows he’s not easy to deal with, and he will send his player to a team that will regret it, see Derek Lowe last offseason.
With Bay the mets made an offer, it’s the best offer out there. His agent is scrambling to try to get him a 5th year, but there is no team out there willing to do so. So should the Mets throw away a 5th year of Jason Bay to get it signed? Why should they just to sign him, even if it’s not in the best longterm interest of the club. Same with Matty Holliday, jump in, go 5 years 90 mil and see what Boras says. That’s the best offer on the table. Cards can only go 80 mil, mets could go 90 heck even go 85. No need to throw in a 6th year guarantee.
Just because Bay hasn’t signed or Holliday hasn’t signed either, they are waiting for other teams to get desperate and they will take advantage. Right now the Mets are in the Drivers seat. Let this all play our before you start your complaining.
——————————————————-
On the Pitching front, there aren’t any real good FA’s. There weren’t to start the offseason. Boston paid through the teeth to get Lackey. Wolf got a stupid contract as well…. The rest are on the same level as Wolf. You either have productive innings eaters, or top of the rotation ability with HUGE injury risk pitchers like Bedard and Sheets.
Agreed, as I have been saying to Mets fans the last three weeks, I’d much rather see the Mets struggle in 2010 and Minaya lose his job than the Mets allow him to make a few last ditch hideous contract offers to appease the fan base, be mediocre in 2010 and paralyze the payroll going into next November when the free agent class and potential trade market is exceedingly richer.
The mets won’t be mediocre if they don’t make a move. They will be fine. They still have a ball club that can win 85-90 games. THey have done so in the past without a 1st baseman, and left fielder, with a worse pitching staff.
Omar has made some sneakily good moves, he’s signed a good bullpen arm from Japan, he’s signed a good injury risk pitcher in Escobar. He’s filled in the minors with guys who can make a spot start or help in the bullpen with guys like R.A. Dickey… He hasn’t made a big splash yet, but it’s not his fault. He’s actually being smart this off-season. And he was pretty smart last year (outside the panic deal for Ollie which really isn’t that bad). He walked away from Lowe and that terrible contract which was the best move last offseason. He has a price in mind for Bay and Holliday and the market is starting to develop positively for the Mets.
You don’t have to go Yankees style and just OVERpay every single time, which the Yankees did last offseason. They gave out 3 ridiculous contracts.
certainly they could be beyond mediocre if they are healthy and things swing the way they need them too, I am just more keen on them not making moves just because rapid and frustrated fans think it is the hallmark of success.
I really still do not understand this infatuation with getting a 35 to 40 homer guy with a swing for CitiField.
Holliday is a much better fit for the Mets than Jason Bay is. He is a line drive hitter that hits homeruns and will also put up 40 to 50 doubles at Citi Field. He is also not going to clog the bases and knows how to take a walk once in a while.
Power is not just about homeruns. With full years from Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Francouer, Holliday and Murphy the Mets would have plenty of Extra Base power. Add in Molina and you can have seven batters capable of hitting for extra bases or a homerun at any one time.
If you really feel that you need that power and want a sure thing then after getting Holliday go after a trade for Dunn which would give the Mets the deepest lineup in the league (including the Phils).
I have a new take on this, I hope they sign Holliday because then at least we know they won’t be able to pony up 4 years and 40-50 million for joel pineiro.
That’s a very good take on it. I don’t think Pienerio is a 10 mil a year pitcher… Heck i didn’t think Wolf was either… These guys will get their money.
Not only is pineiro not a 10 a year pitcher but hes not a 4 year contract pitcher. Geez whatever happened to that rule you never give a pitcher more than 3 years. I’m very nervous the Mets will make a BIG mistake and give pineiro something like 4 years 12 million per year. Ugh him and perez getting 24 million a year, that is scary.
lol, good logic!
If I was Omar Minaya and I was the NY Mets GM… I would take some risks that did not inclue Oliver Perez or Luis Castillo.
Sign Sheets, Bedard, and Dye to platoon with Murphy. Trade Maine for Corey Hart and stick him in LF. Go with Luis Castillo and Blanco/Santos.
Lineup: Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Dye/Hart, Francouer, Murphy/Hart, Santos
Rotation: Johan, Sheets, Bedard, Pelfrey, Perez
with a solid Bullpen behind them.
This team could compete… and maybe win without selling out the future.
First, you can’t trade Maine untill you replace him,…which they haven’t done,….yet! Sencondly, will people please stop trying to put a platoon at 1B! Murphy played his best baseball in ’09 when he played everyday, let the man play, see what you got in him. No FA out there can give you anymore than you can get already with Murphy, and if Jerry would just leave him alone, he has plenty of upside to go.
I hate Murph at first, we need some pop there in my opinion.
We don’t need pop there, it would be nice but it is not a need. If we get Holliday, Molina, that is a BIG upgrade in power and offense. Take Sheets and Garland or Pineiro and that’s a solid rotation. Our bullpen is great and without a big bopper like other teams do, this team can compete woth Murphy at 1st.
Molina at best will replace the power he replaces.
Holliday will likely hit 22 HRs as a Met. There were 12 HR by Met LFers last year so there will be +10HRs.
So an increase of 10 HRs, from these two positions, is not a big upgrade.
Yeah but a full year of Beltran will produce more HRs than what we got outa CF last year with beltran/pagan/sullivan, Wright getting more than 10HRs and getting back to 25 is another 15, Reyes will hit more HRs than Cora did everyday at SS. And a full year of Francouer if he replicates last year. That adds a lot of pop around our lineup if you ask me.
And I think Molina will have atleast 2-3 more than the Mets got out if C last year(13 by my count). I think Molina will be in the upper teens like 17ish
I understand your first point. My response was specific to the two positions referenced.
Yeah and I understand what you were saying, but I went about on my response wrong…
I don’t think we need much of a power upgrade. Rather we need more clutch hitters who can get a single with a runner on 2nd instead of flying out trying to get the 2-run homer.
Yes power is nice, but if a person is the stereotypical A-Rod(Only gets HRs when up/down by 5 runs) then how is that helpful at all. (PS I know A-Rod is a good hitter at all times… but a lot of people I talk to claim thats all he can do, so just using it as an example)
Name 1 guy on the FA market (that is an actuall 1st Baseman not some scrub outfielder that you hope will work at 1st) that can hit the 15 – 20 HR and 40 to 50 doubles that Murphy will likely hit in 2010 if Jerry stops jerking him around?…………I thought so, ……..the only one who’s even close is Adam Laraoche and even he isn’t any better than Murphy and wants a ton of money, and a multi-year deal which blocks Ike Davis,……..So why sign him when Murphy is dirt cheap and gives you the same if not better performance?
Agree. I think we should leave Murphy there. Delgado is a possibility but he is too much of an injury risk. LaRoche is good but wants too many years. Lets stick with Murphy.
I looked at Murphy’s game log from last year and isolated streches where he started 4+ consecutive team games. Label these FT and the rest PT (I also eliminated PH appearances). His splits were:
FT: 299 AB / 0.796 OPS
PT: 185 AB / 0.694 OPS
moving it to 5+ games didn’t really move the OPS much.
I then eliminated September:
FT: 242 AB / 0.743 OPS
PT: 142 AB / 0.677 OPS
Basicially, without September, he put up horrible numbers as a full-time player. September brought him to adequate as a Full Timer. If I have time I’ll look into his platoon splits for September.
Again you make a post where it takes time. Where do you get the info? MLB.COM right?
baseball reference and Excel
and my trusty HP 12c
thx. I get my info from mostly Mlb.Com
thanks, I didn’t know they had hit charts
your welcome.
Yes he’s not great… Point being what’s the alternative… Adam Laroche? 8 million for Delgado, who isn’t even playing baseball by last accounts?
There is no option out there, worth the investment or risk that would be so much better then Murphy.
I agree the alternatives are minimal, but let’s not say Murphy is an offensive weapon. To be honest with you with the number of questions in the rotation, catcher (even if they sign Molina), and the injuries from last year this season is almost a crp shoot to begin with. IfDavis was there from Day 1 I wouldn’t be that upset.
But you can’t just remove September like it was a fluke – that was the first month of consistent playing time he had at a position he was comfortable with (or was at least becoming comfortable with). Its the only month worth looking at really. It’s not just consecutive games that makes a player a full-time player. It’s being comfortable in the field, concentrating on your hitting, adjusting to relievers you see several times over a multi-game stand, etc. And there’s a psychological element of the confidence the team is putting in you as well. BTW, those numbers also don’t reflect his slot in the batting order, which changed almost every game from what I remember.
September may or may not have been a fluke. It is far outside the rest of the season. But please note that he had a 29 game stretch starting at 1B between 7/10 and 8/11 where he produced an OPS of 0.713. His September / October was actually more choppy. He started 24 games, PH in 5, and sat out 2. In other words Sep / Oct give marginal proof that he should be platooned.
thats good stuff, I worry that Murphy from May-August is the real Murphy and in Sept he benefited from some inferior pitching. Although I say that and already find a major flaw in that theory being that the Mets couldnt get a big hit in the last 2 septembers before 2009 no matter who they faced.
Understood, but Murphy doesn’t start at 1B until June, so he’s playing on and off at a new position for three months before he settles down in September. But look, I’m not saying he’s the second coming. But I think people who are ready to send him on his way, or who assume he’ll be dead weight in 2010, based on what he strung together in 2009 with everything else going on, are totally unreasonable.
actually 5/20. He started 29 consecutive games at 1B from 7/10 and 8/11; the second half of which he had an OPS of .748
He only started 77% of the games in Sept / Oct. Although not really a large sample it offers some evidence that he is not a starting player. Although I haven’t looked at the platoons yet I’d bet they were mostly against RHP
Agree 100%. Whether you love or hate Murph, platooning him makes no sense. He performs best as an everyday, so you either want him gone or as your man at 1B. Middle ground is no ground. And frankly, I think he had a solid year considering what he was put through in his first full MLB season after skipping AAA (learning two new positions on the job, batting in every spot in the order, and having no bats around him). It makes all the sense in the world to give him the spot and see what he does with it. We have a possible mid-year call up in Ike Davis if need be. But even if you think (without reason or proof, in my view) that he shouldn’t be there, platooning him is not the solution.
Couldn’t agree more! Given the circumstances, you couldn’t really ask Murphy to do much more in his first full season in the big leagues. This kid was rushed to begin with, frankly we are lucky he didn’t fold like a $20.00 childs tent after enduring what he did in LF. Is he an offensive powerhouse? Well no, but the point is give the guy a chance for a full season and see what you got in him. At worst he plays somewhat better with a full year at First and you trade him for some nice pieces. Or should Murph really shine you could put Ike Davis in the OF (a position he can play) or possibly move Murphy to 2nd. Either way a platoon really isn’t much more than a waste of salary at this point, because there really isn’t anybody that is going to dominate from the other side of the plate thats available.
He has played 17 games at 2B in the minors. If you put him there mid-season is that not asking too much and dooming him to failure? I mean we did that to him last year and that is why he didn’t produce.
Oh, I’m not talking mid-season, he would have to start the season there I would think ideally he would play winter ball at 2nd and go from there. Davis won’t be ready this season, I’m talking beginning 2011. I agree it wouldn’t be ideal for Murphy to change mid-season. I’m just saying given the options available on the market now at 1st base, we are better served putting money into pitching, rather than get platoon partner for Murphy when it really isn’t neccessary.
I tend to agree somewhat with that. My issue is making excuses for his performance and saying his performance will be more than adequiate at 1B. .
As a stop-gap to Davis in 2011, I think his performance batting 7th (assuming we get Bay/Holliday) or 8th in the line-up (assuming Molina) is more than adequate.
If he is a placeholder then call him a placeholder. But he’s not adequate if he repeats last year. You can mitigate the damage somewhat by getting a platoon 1B for LHPs and a few Rosaries that Davis is ready by the All Star Break.
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Granted that Puljols is Puljols, but he did skip AAA, AA, and A+.
Holliday skipped AAA
Cano played 85 games at AAA, Wright 31, LaRohce 71,
BTW, during Puljols’ rookie season he played: 55 gamse at 3B, 43 at 1B, 39 at LF, and 39 at RF. Again, he is a special talent but I think we need to stop making excuses for Murphy.
Wow. I didn’t know about Pujols. He’ll probably break the homerun record too along with A-roid
see above relating to the compliment posting of yours
Your rotation projects 4 pitchers coming off an injury, three of them had less than 15 starts:
Bedard: 15 GS (won’t be ready until May-June)
Perez: 14 GS
Sheets: 0 GS
Gambling on 3/5 of the rotation is just crazy. As for Corey Hart, the Mets already have one playing RF, why they you want another one? Why trade Maine for a player that can’t hit above avg level, while playing half of his games in a hitters park?
Dye is an OK option, if they can’t sign Bay or Holiday.