Last week, Dan Budreika of FanGraphs took a close, statistical look at Mike Pelfrey, who he considers a ‘sleeper, for 2010, during which ‘he will benefit with a little more help from his defense.’
Pelfrey ends the season 10–12 with a 5.03 ERA, compared to going 13–11 with a 3.72 ERA last season.
Jeffrey G sent in the link, with the following comments:
“The key difference between Pelfrey’s 2009 and 2008: his fastball wasn’t doing what it did before. You can chalk this up to three things with a guy his age: one, an injury; two, something mechanical; three, something mental… My presumption is that he sometimes loses whatever focus or mental drive he needs to allow his very talented arm to produce the fastball it has within it; hence we get those innings that just unravel for him.”
…if you look at his stats, as budreika points out, a lot of his struggles last season occurred behind him, in the field… having Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes back in the field all season; a more mature Daniel Murphy at first; and a better defensive second baseman than Luis Castillo; are probably the best things the Mets could do for pelfrey… if he is confident in his defense, i would bet he gains more confidence in his fastball and in throwing strikes… he, like the other pitchers on his staff, had to feel totally alone out there on that mound last season…
…not to mention he’s made 80 starts for his career… so, he’s at about that point where things should finally start to click for him… he pitched a full season last year, labored through it, and i expect, coupled with the better defense, pelfrey will step forward and have a good season in 2010… i’m actually not very concerned for him… it’s the other two, John Maine and Oliver Perez, who have me most worried…
Last year, Pelfrey and Jon Niese were on a pre-season list of red-flagged pitchers by Tom Verducci of SI.com, who said both pitchers could be prone to a poor season in 2009 due to the number of innings pitched in 2008, a.k.a. ‘The Year-After Effect.’
Do you really see a better defensive 2nd baseman in the Mets’ immediate future?
Castillo’s not great, but he’s adaquate, particularly with Reyes and Murphy’s increased range over Delgado. (and Tatis..)
I see Pelfrey having a good year. He won 10 games with a bad offense and you already mentioned the improved defense. I dont’ think it’s a stretch to expect 15 games from him. He also seemed to be in a ‘AAA’ mode at the end of last year (as the rest of the team was an AAA team..) fiddling a bit and experimenting.
That’s what I have said in defense of big pelf… As soon as Reyes went down, that first week, i remember distinctly watching and at least a dozen or more times a ball was hit back up the middle a little to the SS side of Short, where for the last 2 years prior it was an out, only to see Cora not come within 2 feet of the ball which was now a single. The same happened on what would be routine double play balls.
As for Murphy, he was a breath of fresh air at 1st defensively. He was aggressive on the ground, scouping balls charging hard, pushing the defense to make plays and forcing the action. Something a mets first baseman hadn’t done since Olerued and Hernendez before him. It’s 75% of the reason i think he should be out there every day. Defense at 1st is so under-rated especially during the last 15-20 years (Steroid era) where teams put slugs at 1st where you can “Hide” defense.
Also don’t forget about Murphy in LF for the first month couldn’t have helped, Tatis playing a ton at 1st, 3rd and corner outfield.
I belive in Pelfrey. He can do it.
Can anyone point me to actual research involving controls and real numbers supporting the Verducci Effect? From what I have found thus far it seems to be somewhat in question. Specificially the definition of the effect is a moving target, small sample size, no control group, and a statisticially troubled sampling technique. At the moment all I can find is that it is based on observation and not true statistical analysis. So if anyone can point me to an actual study I would appreciate it. I’m on my way to work so if I don’t respond I’m not ignoring you.
I believe Verducci did an article before last year showing the numbers and who based on prior observation would fall into the category. I do not believe an actual study has ever been done but just Verducci looking at young pitchers and seeing a trend of injury or ineffectiveness in seasons following one where they increased their innings by more than 30 I think. It would be an interesting study to do. It is not a surefire guage but based on his theory guys like Pelf and Hamels would struggle in 2009 due to the large increase in innings in 2008. In those cases it was true as both had very medicore up and down years.
Thanks. But without the proper study techniques it should technicially be called a conjecture. I have found some stuff that implies it is highly flawed even at that level. I think it also predicted Lincecom’s arm would have fallen off by now.
I replied with links but it’s under moderation. So i’ll piece it together in 2 posts.
Took me a while because every time you put search “year after effect” or “Verducci effect” you get a bunch of Fantasy articles ha.
Here is verducci’s origional piece in SI in ‘06.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/11/28/pitchers/index.html
Here is the Hard Ball times article to prove him wrong 2 days later:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-year-after-effect/
It lists 5 players heading into the ‘07 season to look to have big years Matt Cain, Gustavo Chacin, Zach Duke, Scott Kazmir, and Pat Maholm…. Whoops Chacin and Duke got hurt… Kazmir & Cain had good seasons, but not as good as the year Before, and Maholm was right on Par.
I also believe that this rule has been further researched since he brought it up in his article and has held pretty steady. There are always exceptions like Lincecum, but there are exceptions to every rule. Meaning that this is probably correct 75% of the time.
thanks.
Even without Verducci I would have thought Lincecom’s arm would have fallen off already based on that motion of his. While it was wrong there just watching Tim throw I do not know if I would be giving him a Santana like 7 year contract.
over the history of baseball young pitchers who increase their workload significantly are more likely to have arm issues than those with moderate increases.
I’ve looked at IP data from a sample of players in each of the last five decades and you can find examples that the effect is true a lot easier than you can find those who defy the premise. Anyone who wants to take a comprehensive look at everyone who has plitched in the last 50+ years to see how the premise really holds up should expect to dedicate a few years… and should probably try to get a few grants before they start… otherwise I think we’ll just have to trust the simple logic of it.
Have we heard of common sense though?
I mean, go look at data for manual laborers who go from part time to full time, I bet you see plenty of increased injuries there too.
It’s hardly an exact science. The decreased effectiveness is to be expected if they’re a little more worn down from the increased load, and the large increase of sample size data for opposing scouts to analyze.
i think managing rest is important too, (not Joba rules like rest though, that’s just stupid) skip a start here or there (or the last start of ’09 for Pelfrey for longer offseason rest) find that extra day for a younger guy. I’ve heard people mention the idea of using a 6-man rotation for April, help work guys up a little bit slower, and I think it might be a good idea if a team can swing it. or late July/early August. give everyone an extra day of rest leading into pennant races.
The odd result is that it the increased work load hurts the pitcher the next season even if they are given less of a workload in that season. Which isn’t as simple as just fatigue.
As bad as 4th and 5th starters around baseball are, I shudder to think what watching a whole month of 6th starters would be like.
With off days most starts are made on 5 days of rest with pitchers making 31 or 32 starts. So basically extra rest is already the norm, although using a 6th starter to spot start when there is no off day would allow for pitchers to never have to pitch on 4 days rest… much less 3 days rest.
Throwing more when a pitcher is young has its merits too, that is why Lincecum is defying the odds. Or part of it anyway.
Well, considering injuries most teams end up using a 6th guy anyway. Try out a prospect for 2 starts for instance. Or continue the 5th spot competition two weeks into April. I think Santana could’ve benefited from an extra day here and there in May last year, and I think one of the biggest reasons the Yankees won was Girardi being able to rest guys like Pettite and Mariano. (and A-Rod and Posada)
That’s the exact reason why i don’t want to go into the year with neise being the 5th starter. He can go back to AAA and hone his craft even more, and be ready when someone goes down. Go in to the year with Johan, pelf, Ollie, Guy, Guy… Neise in AAA… one of those guys can be Maine, preferably i’d perfer them to spend some cash and it be Garland and Sheets.
I think part of it is similar to the old trick question: in what inning do most no-hitters end? The knee jerk response is the 7th. But in reality it is the first. I believe the observed anecdotal increased injuries are similar. Pitching is not natural. Those with good motions, such as Seaver had, last forever. Those that don’t blow up early. Those in between last until the 30s. And those with existing conditions will blow out younger. I don’t think it has as much to do with the workload, unless Dusty Baker is involved, and has more to do with natural selection and the opportunity for them to destruct.
However, guys like Seaver and Carlton had healthy innings increases when they were young as well as healthy pitching motions. Those are two great examples that when you have both you can pitch a lot for a long time, and stay healthy doing it.
Reyes being back behind Pelfrey could have a seriously positive affect on Mike’s mentality as well as simply decreasing the number of balls that get through the IF. I’m not all that sold on Beltran being a big help to Pelfrey, although he’ll be a big help to the Mets overall defense if he can stay healthy most of the year, being Pelf is a ground ball pitcher and I can’t recall too many grounders to CF being an issue last year.
Either way I think the trust in the defense will have a bigger impact on Pelf’s performance than the actual range improvement of those positions.
hmm, this was supposed to be a reply to the main post in general, not to Sylow on the Verducci thing. :)
I would agree Pelf is a lesser concern to me. It is Maine and Perez who I worry the most about. I think a big problem Pelf had last year was the year after affect. It has been shown time and again young pitchers who have a big jump in innings like Pelf did in 2008 seem to have struggles the next year either with an injury occurring or just general struggles.
What is the status of Niese’s hamstring?
That was quite a strain.
Will he be ready in Feb?
I believe he actually tore it from the bone if I remember correctly. I haven’t heard anything but I would suspect he would be ready for Spring Training as I would think we would have heard otherwise if not.
1) A tear is what I remember
2) ouch
I heard he will be ready, but it was not a strain, he completely tore the hamstring from the bone. Not a fun injury.
Never had it but doesn’t sound pleasant. Similar to what Piazza did where the muscle comes completely off.
Having slightly strained my hamstring numerous times in my life, I cannot imagine the pain that one feels tearing a hamstring.
“three, something mental… My presumption is that he sometimes loses whatever focus or mental drive….”
This is great, Two mental pitchers in the same rotation. Well done metsis, well done.
Excuses know no bounds when it comes to Pelfrey. I can’t remember any other healthy player getting as many free passes as Pelfrey seems to get.
I like Pelfrey, but unlike many, I do not overrate him. He’s tall, strong and healthy, and really that is about all. He pitches to contact, lacks any real effective out pitches (has no strikeout pitch at all). His best asset is that because of his frame, he can throw 90 all day long. But, his K/9 rate never really gets above 5, he walks 3 per game, and usually gives up 10 hits per 9. 10 hits, 3 walks = 13 walks per 9, or a WHIP of 1.4 to 1.5. He is what he is.
2008 was a slightly better year for him, but he was a very similar pitcher. He gave up 1 less hit per 9 innings pitched, and walked a half a batter less per 9 (which is about 1 fewer walk per 3 starts).
I think his ERA in 2008 was a little lucky, and I think his ERA in 2009 was a little unlucky. I think he’s a high 4′s ERA guy, a 4.75 type, a 1.45 WHIP guy. Split the difference between 2008 and 2009. I don’t recommend holding out hope that he will suddenly become Brandon Webb. Webb has been a 1.1 WHIP, 7+ strikeouts per 9 pitcher since his first season.
I’ll chalk 2009 up to the Verducci Effect. Cole Hamels had a bad season, too…
Difference is Hamels is going to have a bad 2010, Pelfrey won’t.
If the “Verducci Effect” were really in play here … wouldn’t we expect to see decline as the season went along, more so towards the end when the fatigue issues were really getting to him?
Unfortunately, Pelfrey was terrible in April, May (1.7 WHIP), terrible in July (1.7 WHIP), and then improved to be a consistently mediocre 1.5 WHIP for the remaining 2 months.
Unless the Verducci Effect typically hurts pitchers primarily in the 1st half of the following year (which I doubt), then I am not buying.
i have always been a huge pelfrey fan, i still hold out hope that he is the number 2 pitcher we need in the rotation because i think his stuff is that good….that said, clearly a large part of his problem is in his head; that worries me because newyork is not that place to play if your not mentaly strong.
I think the, “Verducci” effect was a factor to a small degree…but i defintly think pelf has to have better focus and mental discipline……..all in all, i think he is an x factor to this team
If he can pitch up to his potential (200+innings 3.30-3.60era and keep his walks low) i think the staff could be in good shape.
I don’t know what happened to Pelf but toward the end of 2008 when we needed a pitcher to step up it was Pelfrey who became unstoppable. That was the heat of a pennant race and the dude stepped it up. Are we to believe he really has mental issues that can’t be solved? I say, he gets a pass on 2009 if he can improve in 2010. I believe he can, we all have our opinions but we’ll just have to wait and see