Daily Archives: January 6, 2010
Buster Olney of ESPN.com says neither the Mets nor the Yankees are in on free-agent Cuban RHP Aroldis Chapman, according to one talent evaluator, who expects the bidding to exceed $20 million.
…this is disappointing, since it seems like he would bring an instant injection of young pitching in to the team’s farm system…
According to Olney, there are concerns in some quarters that Chapman may be better in the bullpen than as a starting pitcher.
…like i mentioned in a comment from a post earlier today, the Mets, Yankees, Angels and Red Sox are probably thinking: he’ll be established and back on the free-agent market in a few years anyway, and, at that point, he will still be in his early 20s, and they’ll know what he is all about…
…in other words, why bid $20 million to develop this kid, for maybe one or two seasons of major-league production, at best, only to see him walk out on the open market in a few years anyway…
This morning, Juan Rodriguez from the Sun-Sentinel said Chapman is saying he expects to sign a contract with a major-league team at some point in the next three or four days.
Rodriguez believes the A’s and Blue Jays are the favorites to sign him, as one or both might have offered him a contract worth around $21 million.
The team said today that Mets pitchers and catchers are required to report to Tradition Field in Port St. Lucie by Feb. 18.
The team’s position players are required to report by Feb. 23, and their first official, full-squad workout will be two days later on Feb. 25.
…i expect you will see more players report earlier this season, than compared to years past, due to the number of injuries from last year…i would certainly expect to see Jose Reyes sooner than later…
…i’m excited… i love Spring Training… as a Mets fan, for me, i think it’s one of the best experiences, and if you have never gone, you should do all you can to get down there…
…i am planning to go back for a third-straight season, hopefully for the 10 days between February and March, spanning workouts and the first week of games…
The Mets will play their first Spring Training game on Tuesday, March 2 in St. Lucie.
Tickets for Mets Spring Training games will go on sale at Tradition Field Saturday, Jan. 23 at 10 a.m., and are available online at Mets.com or by calling 772-871-2115.
In case you missed it, the following is a promo for the 2010 Mets, titled We Believe:
…i like it… i fear a lot of the fan base has lost faith in the whole Ya Gotta Believe identity, due to the back-to-back collapses… which is totally understandable… but, nevertheless, sad, because, Ya Gotta Believe captures the sense of hope that used to bond us…
…i mean, as a Jets fan, i am hopeless… i genuinely believe if something can go wrong for the Jets, it will… but, for the Mets, because of 1969, Tug McGraw, the 1986 post season, the Grand-Slam Single, Todd Pratt’s home run, etc., i always felt that if the Mets needed deserved a miracle, it could be found… but, those two collapses, and the curve ball to Carlos Beltran in 2006, that faith deteriorated a bit, and i know others feel the same…
…that said, i love Ya Gotta Believe… hell, I Wanna Believe… it’s more fun that way… and so, i like that the team is using this is in their plea and hype for next season… i’m in…
The player pages at FanGraphs now include CHONE projections, developed by Baseball Projection.
…i use a combination of CHONE and PECOTA for my fantasy baseball team, La Cosa Nostra, for the league i have been in for the last 15 years…
According to CHONE, in 149 games for the Mets in 2010, 1B Daniel Murphy will hit .274 with a .757 OPS, 12 HR, 63 RBI and 31 doubles.
…in other words, the projection sees murphy getting a few more balls to drop in for singles than he had last year, and that’s about it… though, i think he showed signs towards the end of last season, making adjustments to pitchers who had adjusted to him, which suggests he might be capable of pulling a few more doubles in to the gap over his shoulder… if he can begin to hit the ball the other way, he can probably squeak out a few more home runs, too, and realistically end up hitting around .280, with 40 doubles and between 15 and 20 home runs, which, with the way he played defense, will be more than fine…
In regards to the Citi Field-Home Run debate, according to CHONE, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay, Jose Reyes, Jeff Francoeur and Bengie Molina will total 105 home runs next season, which is 10 more than the entire team hit all of his last season.
Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin both fell short of the necessary votes needed to get in to the Hall of Fame today.
In a post to the Vertex, Eric Bienenfeld looks back at the deal in 2000 that could have sent Larkin to the Mets, who, at the time, most likely would have cost top prospect Alex Escobar, who the Mets eventually used to acquire Alomar in 2001.
Speaking of middle infielders…
The Marlins have had informal talks with free-agent 2B Adam Kennedy, as well as free-agent OF Cory Sullivan, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
Jackson believes the Marlins might begin taking calls on 1B Jorge Cantu, because they have been unable to trade 2B Dan Uggla.
Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record believes Citi Field had a negative effect on David Wright last season, physically then mentally, and wonders if the same could happen to Jason Bay, “which is why Citi needs to become less asymmetrical and more conventional – and realistic – in the outfield.”
…i just can’t believe there still people, who, with just 82 games to base their opinion on, still believe Citi Field is the main reason for the team’s lack of home runs last season…
…it’s been a while, so i’ll re-post what i wrote two months ago:
For what it’s worth, according to MLB Park Factors on ESPN.com, 18 other ballparks were more difficult to hit a home run in last season than Citi Field, including Fenway Park.
…the Mets lack of home run hitters killed home runs in Citi Field, not the ballpark…
The Mets were last in the National League in home runs.
…but, let’s say Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran would have hit at least 25 home runs each this season… they probably would have hit more… but, just add those missing 50, and the Mets jump up to the middle of the pack in total team home runs… boom, two players, middle of the pack… by the way, remove Ryan Howard and Jason Werth, philly’s two biggest home run hitters, and they drop from most home runs in the NL to middle of the pack as well…
Speaking of the Phillies, they hit 14 home runs in nine games against Mets pitching in Citi Field. They hit 10 against Mets pitching in hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park.
Meanwhile, the Mets hit seven home runs in nine games played at Citizen’s Bank Park, but hit NINE home runs in nine games against the Phillies in Citi Field.
…in other words, if you go by just Mets-Phillies, and the 19 games played against one another, the two teams hit MORE home runs in Citi Field than in Citizen’s Bank Park…
Similarly, the Mets hit more home runs in Citi Field than they hit in the same number of games on the road last season.
…in the end, if the Mets had delgado, beltran and, say, Jason Bay in left, i am pretty sure there would be ZERO talk of a problem hitting home runs in Citi Field, because, beltran, delgado and bay will hit a lot of home runs, and Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan and Fernando Tatis will not…
…klapisch could be right… who knows… the thing is, i’m glad the Mets are doing nothing right now, because it would be foolish to make such drastic adjustments to the ballpark until there is more evidence to go on, and that includes having actual home-run hitters in the lineup…
…if after this season, in year two, with a full year from wright, beltran, and Jose Reyes, and the addition of bay, and maybe Bengie Molina, if then the Mets still finish last in home runs, which i know they will not, but if they do, then i think it will be fair to discuss the power outage in the ballpark… but, to do it now, following last season, would be way, way too premature…
Yet again, like last off season, Orlando Hudson is clearly sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see what the Mets do with Luis Castillo.
It’s not surprising that the Mets are having a difficult time moving Castillo. The team who might be willing to swap salary now knows the Mets want to move him. At the same time, any team who actually needs a second baseman can just sign Felipe Lopez, or, for that matter, sign Hudson, who, at this point, might be lucky to get the type of deal he signed last off season, i.e., one year, maybe $3 million and with a lots of incentives.
Frankly, if Hudson’s market is really that weak, and his demands are that low, and if the Mets really want him, because they think he can significantly upgrade their infield defense and thus help bring confidence to the pitching staff, I think they should just sign him and put Castillo on the bench.
The Mets have to acquire at least one, new starting pitcher, to team up with Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Oliver Perez before the season starts.
In a perfect world, free-agent RHP Ben Sheets is the quick-and-easy answer, because, even if he misses 10 starts due to injury and rest, it would mean the Mets had one of the most dominant 1–2 combinations in baseball for three or four months of the season, allowing for some pretty-serious, long-term winning streaks. However, as one person with the team told me, and like Joel Sherman said at his blog for the New York Post yesterday, the Mets now seem to be leaning toward bringing in a more ‘stable, more reliable pitcher,’ someone who, though he might not win a Cy Young, can be counted on every fifth day… which is important since Maine, Perez and Pelfrey can all be considered ‘question marks,’ and since Santana will be returning from elbow surgery.
Nevertheless, I sense the Mets are continuing to explore the trade market for someone who is both of these things, i.e., a proven and reliable No. 2 starting pitcher. I assume this to mean people like Cubs RHP Carlos Zambrano, Reds RHPs Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, and Royals RHP Gil Meche, all of whom are reportedly available.
However, all indications out of Chicago are that, while the Mets and Cubs can agree to a deal, Zambrano is not yet willing to waive his no-trade clause. Additionally, from what I can tell, Meche is not exactly what the Mets are looking for. And, though they’ll trade one of Arroyo and Harang, the Reds are not as desperate to shed salary as they had been described. Plus, if the Reds are going to trade one of the two, I hear they need a comparable replacement, either in trade or from the free-agent market. And so, this makes me think the Mets are more likely to sign a free-agent pitcher, though that may not be their preferred solution, all while continuing to monitor the free-agent and trade market during the spring and early part of the season.
That said, the more and more I listen to people in-the-know, and then read what reporters are saying, I sense the Mets have no interest in giving more than a two-year deal to any pitcher, which is smart… and so this will make signing free-agent RHP Joel Pineiro quite difficult, since, from what I can tell, while he’s still seeking a four-year, $50 million deal, his best offer might end up being for three years and $10 million per season, if he’s lucky. This would suggest he could strike a deal with the Mets; but it will not be easy, and it will not be quick.
Meanwhile, Sheets is said to be seeking $12 million in guaranteed money, with up to $5 million in incentives, for one season, but with a vesting player-option for a second year, which I have to think will be too expensive for most teams, including the Mets. I believe, if he were to lower his demands, he’d be on the top of both Jeff Wilpon’s and Omar Minaya’s list, and, at that point, they might even bring in another pitcher to be an insurance policy and compete for the back of the rotation. But, at, say, one year and a possible $17 million salary, and knowing he can decide whether to stay or go the following season, I don’t think any team feels he is worth it… at least not yet.
And so, at this point, because of their current asking prices, coupled with the Mets needs, I have a feeling Jon Garland might end up in their starting rotation, since, from what I can gather, he can be had for an inexpensive two-year contract, and because he’s made at least 32 starts each of the last NINE seasons, during which he averaged a Quality Start more than 50 percent of the time.
In the end, I do think the Mets can make it to the post season with Santana at the top his game, and with Garland being Garland, and with a typical up-and-down, back-and-forth performance out of Perez, Maine and Pelfrey… of course, they’d be even better with Sheets, Zambrano or Arroyo.
Juan Rodriguez from the Sun-Sentinel says free-agent Cuban LHP Aroldis Chapman is saying he expects to sign a contract with a major-league team at some point in the next three or four days.
Rodriguez believes the A’s and Blue Jays are the favorites to sign Chapman, as one or both they have offered him a contract worth around $21 million.
Last weekend, Jorge Arangure of ESPN said the Blue Jays held a private workout for Chapman in Miami, and then met with his agents following the session.
According to Rodriguez, the Marlins recently increased their original $13 million offer to Chapman, which the team hopes he will consider given their city’s large Cuban population.
Last week, at FoxSports.com, Ken Rosenthal made an educated guss that Chapman might sign with the Marlins.
…i have yet to talk to a scout or person in player development who doesn’t feel chapman will need to start the season in the minor leagues, then work his way up, which could take him at least a year or two… and this should be expected of a 20–year-old kid, migrating to a new country, making his debut in professional baseball… i have not picked up any buzz suggesting the Mets or Yankees made a legit bid for chapman, who they might feel could struggle trying to break through in New York City…
In regards to Bengie Molina, I get the feeling the Mets might have a two-year deal on the table, which will be their final offer; and the team must feel he will eventually accept it… as they should.
I mean, really, what are is his other options?
If not Citi Field, at best, Molina is looking at a one-year deal to be a back-up, mentor type in San Diego or Texas… and so, it’s beginning to look and feel inevitable he’ll be in Queens.
I am not a fan of Molina, which is not a secret, and so I am still holding out hope they sign him to only a one-year contract. But, if it has to be two, I hope the Mets can propose to him the idea of being their starting catcher in year one, and then a back-up and mentor to, say, Josh Thole, in year two, in return for around $12 million in guaranteed money. I can handle that.
Of course, under that scenario, I still can’t help and think I’ll be writing about rumors of the Mets trying to dump a 37–year-old, overpaid catcher next off season; but if everyone, from player to management, is realistic about his role, I think such a contract can work itself out.
In reading e-mails and comments and blog posts from other Mets fans, most of the Molina conversation centers around his ability to hit for ‘power.’ However, I have yet to hear any one from the team talk about his bat. Instead, they repeatedly talk up how well he works with both the starting rotation and the bullpen, how successful he has been at preparing a pitcher with the coaching staff for each night’s game, and I hear about how well he knows the hitters in the National League… and so, it seems like the Mets value these behind-the-scenes qualities as much as – if not more than – his potential to hit 15 to 20 home runs from behind the plate.
Unfortunately for me, I can’t shake the image of him running a mile-per-hour around the bases, or swinging at every pitch thrown to him, or how he will likely hit in to countless inning-ending double plays… and being booed for it every slow step of the way.
However, if he truly can help straighten out Oliver Perez, if he can get Johan Santana in to even-more of a zone than he already is, and if he can do much of the same with the rest of the staff, making them all better, then I can certainly learn to live with his negatives, especially if he’s only batting seventh or eighth in the order.
