According to Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA projects the NL East to end up as the following:
…well, that will be a problem… and what happens to the Marlins… yikes… i actually expect the division to be a lot closer than this, with the winner reaching around just 85 wins… yes, i think it’s gonna be THAT division…
[poll id="344"]
swap the Marlins for the Nats and it seems about right
What was last years projection for the Mets……shows what this is really worth.
Exactly what i was thinking!
What are they ‘smoking?!’
^^ Purple haze lol
Not a chance. Mets over, Nats under. (Rays under, Angels over)
without injuries the Mets will finish at least second, there’s an outside chance the Braves could over perform and do very well, but I don’t see it.
The Phillies are relying on a lot of guys that were at the top of their game in 2009 (Ibanez, Werth for instance) and have a couple of question marks in rotation and bullpen as well. No one is running away with this division.
I agree. I am actually thrilled that everyone thinks we are this bad. I hate going into the season being picked to win anything.
nobody “picked” this. you can’t blame this on how much olney and rosenthal and every other national guy hate us. these are the results of an impartial computer simulation run thousands of times.
yea the computer picked it…
These are the same “people” that picked the METS to win the WS in 2009? Are these the same “people” that predicted the DL onslaught? The DL thing could NOT have been predicted and the same thing can happen to the Phillies in 2010. We have to play 162 games and we will. LETS GO METS !!!
thing is tho, were not gonna play the season thousands of times and then take our average win totals. we’re gonna play it once. and alot of stuff happens. i understand how they project player statitstics, i dont put alot of stock in projecting win totals.
Yea but someone had to set the simulation up…. (Phillies Fan???…lol)
-The Phillies are relying on a lot of guys that were at the top of their game in 2009…
And the mets are relying on Maine, Pelfrey an Perez to have a good year lol
and I guess they were at the top of their game in 2008 when the won the World Series too. maybe they just know how to ALWAYS play at the top of their game, while we don’t.
Wait a minute. The Mets choked twice (less so in ’08 than ’07, but there’s still no other way to put it). If not, they win the division over the Phillies both years. I thought this staff was short starting pitching last year when it was picked to go to the WS, but that doesn’t change the fact that they were considered good enough to compete. They have all had time to heal and strengthen themselves up. I don’t think injuries are going to be their biggest problem this year. I think they will find they are still short one of either a solid pitcher or a solid bat that can make up for the lack of that solid pitcher. As maligned as he was on this site, Molina’s bat in this line-up would have made a real difference (compared to where we sit today).
All that said, the Mets fight the Phillies all year, and there are at least four teams still in it with two weeks to go in the season.
Yes, like Cole Hamels who was horrible, yes like Jimmy Rollins who was horrible, yes like Chase Utley who was coming off hip suregery and wore down as the year went on, yes, like Brad Lidge who blew 11 saves, yes, like Ryan Howard who;’s power was down for him. So they had two guys excel and everal guys under achieve and they still made the World Series. But my question to you is why did you only mention the two who did good?
i agree that attrition looks deadly for the phils this year. but its nearly impossible to knock utley or howard. those guys are GREAT players hard to deny. i question whether victorino and werth will keep it up…. im not sure. i think id trust them on my fantasy team… maybe victorino a little less… i think he might have peaked but even if werth did he has a lot of power
rollins started horrible, and yet somehow ended the year with typical rollins totals. utley was a beast. howard was a beast. did you really just say they underacheived? they had 76HR 233RBI 217R between them. and you act like they were waying the phils down? are u kidding?
weighing. sometimes i think my fingers type without my brains help.
I agree with fallon7284… the Phillies had a great year. But, you know what, they didn’t have anyone chasing them. If the Mets don’t end up with more days on the disabled list than the American League West, maybe the flaws shown by Hamels and Lidge would had actually mattered.
I surprised myself by voting “more”. I guess I’m unusually optimistic today.
Yea,if you call saying the Mets will win more than 77 optimistic.
Phils will win more than 88
sadly, I do.
I don’t know about the phils. They’ve caught a lot of breaks, and enjoyed a couple of peak years from important contributors. They’re as fallible as anyone else in the division, IMO.
BP predicted the Marlins to finish last in 2009 as well.
wow that hurts i’m kind of sorry i logged on here
until the nationals have a turnaround season like the rays did 2 years ago, there is no reason to believe they could finish in any other spot than last
that doesnt make any sense.
Guess we fans aren’t the only ones who have gotten sick of being let down by the Mets. Might as well set the bar low this time…
Wrong on both Mets and Marlins – both will be over 80 wins. No easy games anymore in that division though.
although it’s probably better this way like last year we were predicted to win the WS and only bad came out of that, better to be predicted to crash and burn
What do they base it on? If it’s last year’s team stats, with Wright and Beltran hitting 10 HRs; a “starting line-up” of Cora, Sheffield, Anderson Hernandez, Sullivan, Schneider, et al; and a rotation without Ollie and Maine, then I’d agree.
IF, that is, we fielded that same team. But remember, we were picked last Winter to win the Division, were solidly in contention until the injuries hit, and should be better now than we were last January.
85 Wins, minimum!
its a little more complicated than thaht. but essentially i believe they are using wrights stats along with weighted predictions towards injury for all the spots that blew up on us last year. that is the only way this prediction is remotely possible
These projections don’t seem possibly close. While I do have a bit of a suspicion we are going to see a new Nats team, I don’t think they are breaking .500, and do think they will still be in the basement of the division. However, I think they have the Braves with way too many wins. The Braves are a sub .500 team right now, IMO. If I had to pick today, I’d put them somewhere around this:
1. Phillies 90-72
2. Mets 84-78
3. Marlins 83-79
4. Braves 77-85
5. Nationals 75-87
i think you are severely underestimating the Braves young talented starting rotation. Those guys gave everyone in the NL East fits last year, and while i think teams will start adjusting to them you have to believe that those guys are going to put up some big numbers pitching wise. (Not sold on their bullpen…though I predict lots of blown saves unless they bring back Rocker…lol)
Agreed. Their rotation of Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Huson and the asian guy are going to be pretty good. Jurrjens and Hanson are the real deal. In a year or two they’re going to be a VERY solid 1, 2 punch. Lowe had an off year but is usually reliable and if Hudson can regain any of his form he’ll be a solid #4.
I think you are right that there pitching staff is going to be solid, but Lowe is not a #1. He could be a solid #2, but he cannot be relied upon to be a stopper. And, I am not sure they have enough in their line-up to take advantage of their pitching prowess. They may end up on the wrong end of a lot of low scoring games.
i don’t mind going into the season as the underdog, but come on! while I do believe the mets need to make some moves to win the world series, we basically have the same exact team that last year was predicted to make the playoffs and give the phillies a run for their money. the only reason why last year was so bad was because of injuries. barring injuries like last year, there is no way the mets don’t finish above .500
-the only reason why last year was so bad was because of injuries…
Noth the only reason and this year doesn’t look that much better.
Bay: Question mark re knee injury
Reyes: Who knows if he will be back 100%
Beltran: Out until all star break
Wright: Uncertain if he will have a better year
Castillo: Well, we all know he can’t field lol
Johan: Who knows how he will respond to surgery
Pelfrey, Perez: HUGE head cases
Maine: Who knows how he will respond to surgery
Niese: Hamstring issues
5 Thousand catchers: They are all back ups to the back ups
Murphy: PLEASEEE!
Francour: THEE only one lol
not quite the same team as last year. The big difference is Putz. Last year, the Mets were touted as having the 8th and 9th inning locked down. That was our strength. Now, we have hope, faith and pray for rain in the 8th inning.
??? who are you refering to…Escobar when healthy is tremendous in the 8th, if he gets hurt though we still have the rubber arm of Feliciano, the flamethrower Parnell (who excelled in the 8th a few times when putz went down, and Iggy (who is highly touted coming from Japan). The 8th is still pretty solid whoever handles it.
guys we will definitely win more games now that the mets signed josh fogg
Can i change my vote? It was before we had fogg.
I hate these projections. They are mostly crap. Although past performance is an indicator of future performance, you cannot acurately predict young players taking a step forward, previously injured players recovering, and bullpens in general.
I never had much faith in PECOTA.
I usually make me think of Mets infielder Bill Pecota … or veal piccata.
But the projection is for the Philies to only win 88 games? A team that’s been to two straight world series? A team that added Halliday?
If it only takes 88 games to win the East, then I’d say the Braves, Marlina and Mets all have a chance.
(Yes, I know PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm)
mmm…veal piccata…
we got fogg!
Yeah, whew!
The last few hours were really tense as i thought, for sure, another team would come from ‘out of nowhere’ and overbid us!.
Damn, looks like we were ‘bidding against ourselves’ – again!
All these predictions are garbage. Play the games. By May and The trading deadline we will have a better idea where we are.
well if that does end up being true and we end up in 4th place, at least they could pat themselves on the back and say we stood our ground and did not waste extra money on players who they felt werent worthy enough and didnt do enough to improve the team in all the areas that needed it. And once again hoping and praying that all the IF’s going into the season once again didnt work, but we saved money and were still not in the playoffs but we have a new stadium with the Mets hall of fame and theres still the shake shack…….sorry for the pessimism, but I want to win and win soon if not improving your team now gets me a win soon im all for it, but if it doesnt and per usual were on the outside looking in while all our rivals win, im not going to be a happy camper
My question is where exactly are the Nats getting 23 more wins from over last year? Pudge and Jason Marquis are worth 23 extra wins, yet that addition of Bay, and getting Reyes and Santana back are only worth 7 to the Mets?
Seems a little out of wack to me.
Really?
People think a Phillies team that added Roy Halladay and Placido Polanco (to replace a half-year of Lee and Pedro Feliz) is going to be 5 to 8 wins WORSE this season than they were last?
Some blue-and-orange-colored glasses being worn around here. The Mets best chance to make the playoffs would be improve enough to win as close to 90 wins as possible.
Halladay is better, yes, but Lee had a brilliant year for them. Polanco is not a better player, particularly defensively, than Feliz. The Phillies lose 3-6 more games last year if the Mets are a healthy team anyway. And that’s particularly predicated on the stupid prediction of the Nats getting 23 more wins, which would mean a couple more off them.
This is the most positive thing I have seen in months. We were picked to win it all last year, so by that logic we will do it this year. Right :/
I like that logic…who remembers 2000 when the Mets weren’t thought off to win a lot and then they make the wild card and make it all the way to the WS. Ahhh good times…..gooooddd times.
I agree with these projections. A lot of people are ignoring the fact that the Nationals have made some good offseason moves integrated with a lot of up and coming talent (and yes other than Strasburg). The Braves have gotten younger and allowed some of their talent to develop in the big leagues over the past few seasons (shocker Mets fans that’s how you are supposed to do it, not the Pujols way. I can’t wait for Ike Davis to come up and struggle and then every Mets fan call him a bum and want to sign the best 1B on the market)
The Mets have not improved at all. Jason Bay is a decent acquisition but, the Mets keeping putting a band-aid on a wound. From an objective view, I don’t see how the Mets are not the 5th place team in the division. There is not one guaranteed player on this team who is expected to perform at their expected level of play.
I disagree with the Phillies winning that amount of games. I can see the Phillies winning at least 93.
When determining whether you think these projections are correct, please notice that they predict the Braves and Nationals to give up the same number of runs. Absurd. The Nats have a good young staff, but not even comparable to ATL this season.
The mets is the new competition for the Nationals this year lol
Another one who needs to “get off the ledge!”
Just being ‘objective.’
nobody is “expected to perform at their expected level of play”?
whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?
Wow are you even a Mets fan!!! But I have to disagree with you on this. Stating that the Mets will finish dead last is Absurd. Nationals have improved but not above .500 improved. Plus it all depends on your definition of their expected level. In my mind, if everyone of the team plays to my view of there expected level we have a good wild card team here.
Reyes .285 12HR 69RBI 80SB
Castillo .290 2HR 42 RBI 17SB
Beltran .305 25HR 78 RBI 11SB (115 games)
Bay .275 31HR 99 RBI 1SB
Wright .315 29HR 101RBI 24SB
Murphy .290 20HR 90 RBI 4SB
F-Core .250 20HR 70 RBI 3SB
Santos .240 10HR 45 RBI 1SB
Santana 18-8 3.05 ERA
Pelfrey 15-10 3.95 ERA
Perez 14-11 4.11 ERA
Maine 13-13 4.24 ERA
Niese 12-9 5.11 ERA
Rodriguez 3.45 ERA 42 saves 6 blown
These really isn’t such a bad team. Now i know i might get bashed a bit for Murph but think about it. the #6 spot is what coaches call the “RBI” spot. Over the past few years the Mets #6 man has been a sub .260 hitter. If you can get a guy who hits at a near .300 clip and ropes doubles he going to pick up some serious RBI numbers.
Matt:
You must be delirious if you think the winner of the division is going to have only 85 wins. The Phils are at a minimum are winning 90, and they may run away and hide this year. The line-up is ridiculous and the rotation is quite solid with Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Blanton and Moyer and they still have Drabek in the wings. Granted they need to shore up the pen, but they won the division quite easily last year with a broken pen and now have added Halladay and Polanco for a full yar. Yikes!!
I dont disagree in the fact the the Phils are far and away better than the Mets, in lineup, pitching and guts I just wanted to add that Drabek went to Toronto in the Halladay trade
hahahah. haha. Polanco really isn’t going to give them anything more than Feliz. Halladay is awesome, but Lee was great. Hamels is a huge question mark, and Happ had a good year as a rookie, but that’s hardly a given for next year. Blanton is probably reliable..but beatable for sure.
There ridiculous lineup didn’t even outscore the Mets in 2008, and most of them are/were playing at the top of their game. relax.
Take off the rosy colored glasses ceetar boy and recognize the reality. Polanco is a much better fit for the line-up than Feliz and they did not have Lee for a full year, but now have Halladay from the onset If Hamels is a huge question mark, then what does that make Ollie, Pelf and Maine.
As far as scoring runs, you are going back to 2008, what a silly comparison considering they did not have Ibanez and Werth had not yet established himself.
The Phils are head and shoulders above us right now and until we get the right management team in, it will remain that way.
Hamels is a huge question mark BUT 4 of the mets pitchers are HUGE questions marks. Actually, the whole mets team is a HUGE question mark. Wake up!
Wait a minute… Maine and Ollie were hurt. Hamels was just bad. That’s a big difference. I am not saying the Mets are better than the mighty Phillies, but I think the question mark thing based on the injuries is being overblown.
I think the problem with the Mets is they are short a pitcher (as they were going into last year), and failing being able to fill that hole, they are short a bat to help make up the difference. Yes, Halladay for a full year is better than Lee for half of one, but the rest of their rotation is not as lights-out as you make it sound. Everyone is back for the start of the season, except Beltran, of course. They are expected to perform, full stop. When they do, this Mets team, even as currently constructed, will give everyone in this division fits… including the Phillies.
“…The Phils are at a minimum are winning 90…”
Who’s delirious?!. The only way that happens is if the whole team goes down in injuries again – and that ain’t gonna happen. So, get a grip – or go buy a ‘pacifier!’
No i agree the Phils are def good enough to win a minimum of 90 games. I actually am assuming they win 91 this year. Thats why as a fan i’m optimistic for the wild card. Yes you guys are right they had Lee for only half the year. But now they have Halladay (no difference) for a full year (big difference). Hamels will be fine this year, and Happ, Blanton, and Moyer? will be above average.
we are defenitely a team that can win 90 imo..but i would put us around 85ish
wow can I smoke what your smoking, I would love to agree with you, but until I see Reyes back to being Reyes, Wright shows me the usual Wright, Show me Beltran actually on the field when he is supposed to be back and back to him being what his production level should be, then factor in whoever pitches after Santana actually gets the job done without mental and physical ailments, castillo doesnt suck at fielding, all of Murphy’s hard work pays off and he puts up productive numbers for a 1B and everything else, then ill be on board. Right now there is to many hopes, prayers and IF this works out or IF he is back to form or IF he actually plays well and consistently for me. Believe me I hope and pray every year that they prove me wrong and every year since I was 9 years old ( 1986 ) they have found a way to break my heart. Plan and simple I dont want to be right I just want to be in a parade with all my Mets gear on being crazy and drunk and having the time of my life, whatever it takes to get me that, whoever you have to sign or not sign, whoever is in the front office or not in the front office whatever it takes to get me a WS win I will take it in a new york minute. I will never come on here and complain again if I just have that win that I can enjoy as an adult, until then whatever they do that doesnt get me that win I am going to bash and be bitter, in this case winning is everything
well yes. haha i kno 90 is a lot. but what i mean is that if all those things do go our way we should be able to win 90. if we stay healthy and everyone plays to their potential we should have no problem getting there
90 games???????? ease up on the absinthe!
Can someone post a year-by-year table that shows PECOTA vs Actual and the variance for the last three years?
I truly feel that the Mets have the offense to win 84-87 games no more if healthy if not healthy they will win about 74
WHAT!!! when the team is healthy we win 85 plus. The llast 2 seasons excludng last season we did now with jason bay should improve. Unless there predicting injuries again. Can somebody explain this?
No 1st baseman, no Beltran, no starting pitching (except for Santana), no catcher. I think this explains it.
wut!! we had the same players 2 and 3 years ago and we got 85 plus wins…..what are you talking about……the only that changed was delgado for bay and I will take a younger player….plus I think francouer is better than church and santos is better than schneider
I agree. No one is running away and hiding this year.
There is now way the mets only win 77 games even with beltran missing April…the only way the mets finish with less than 85 wins is if they have as many injuries as they had last year…look the mets aren’t as good as us met fans would want but let’s be real a team with Santana wright Reyes beltran bay and k-rod as their core is going to be pretty damn good…I know the supporting cast isn’t amaIng but I think the bullpen will be very solid and da rotation will be adequate…it think this team can win anywhere from 85-90 games
LMAO @ 77 wins, we are so much better then that, people think we will have the same team as last year on the field, not happening.
Getting Jason Bay makes you laugh that hard? wow!
normally i respect most of the statistical work out there. but this seems insane… i dont know if anyone posted it, because i havent read all the posts, but what is the vegas line? id guarantee its a lot higher than 77 games, which is a joke…. if you have all these pessimistic met fans here voting “more” you know its off.
But like one posted mentioned up top. i kind of like it. being picked to make and win the WS the last few years never won us anything, kind of nice being the underdog again
I wouldn’t be surprised either way, frankly. there are a whooooole lot of question marks between the rotation, major guys coming off surgery, normal bullpen varience, etc. I can easily see a repeat of last year.
everything breaks right, though, and I can see us winning the division by a few games.
The Nats being so high is kind of strange; I wonder why pecota likes them that much…
Matt you’ve had nothing but depressing posts this week. Please give us a break and hold out until some good news happens, even if it isn’t until 2011.
Even less scientific, I have already molded this roster onto my PS3 MLB2009… the Mets finished 4th with 77 wins. Yikes….
Wierd i did the same thing and got 82-80 and a second time 84-78. Sure you got everyone’s roster right?
My numbers come from all 5 teams NL East teams having their “today’s roster” while everyone is whatever the computer picked up.
an early CAIRO projection that is a little better to the Mets, but not much
rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html
82 wins and 3rd place.
Interesting that they predict the Mets to score 100 more runs than last year (which is an absurd increase but just goes to show how bad the replacement guys really were) and to allow 3 more runs than last year. That’s right, the hopeful 2010 pitching staff is no better than the guys who actually pitched in 2009… gulp.
btw, both of these projections have the Reds in second in the NL Central. So don’t get your hopes up that Arroyo and Phillips get moved during the year.
They also project that the Rays will win the AL East. Sorry, no Carl Crawford at the deadline guys.
Hmmm. Well that’s real nice! Thank you Baseball Prospectus, now I don’t have to watch any of those pesky games this year.
Just curious (since I am not the stat hound the rest of you are), what were we projected to do last year?
Oh yes! They were the ones who picked us to make it to the World Series.
I would rather have no expectations than be on the cover of SI or predicted to go to the world series, this way anything better than 70 wins is a treat. However, I feel this team will win atleast 80 games, hopefully more.
Matt, I love ya but I think you’re dilusional. The Phillies are, far and away, the best team in the NL East. They’ll win the division by at least 7 to 10 games. They’ve got hitting, pitching, speed and defense. I do not like them but they’re one of the top teams in all of MLB.
I would have clicked on the “right on par” button had you offered it. Again, 2-5 in our rotation is one big IF. Yes, IF they pitch lights out, we can compete. But, IF they pitch as they’ve pitched in the past we’re 4th in the division. You can’t win without pitching, it’s just that simple.
What are you talking about? This same 2-4 came in second in ’07 and ’08. I agree we have always needed another front of the rotation guy, but to say these guys are, at best, a 4th place rotation, is just ridiculous. They do not have to pitch lights out, they have to pitch to expectations. Both Maine and Perez have won 15 games for this team in the past. It may be a stretch to expect both of them to get there again, but they both have something to prove. So, it is not crazy to EXPECT them to team up for 28-30. This is the year Pelfrey either puts up or gets dealt. So, chalk him up for 13-15 too.
I am tired of wondering IF, it is time to demand performance. Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez are coming back healthy this year. They need to perform. So does Reyes, and Wright, and Bay, and Francouer, and Murphy, and…
Nobody needs to carry the team on their shoulders, but they ALL need to perform.
The Mets will shock the world!!!!!!!!!! NL EAST CHAMPS 2010!!
i like the enthusiasm….lol. Hey Ya Gotta Believe.
YA GOTTA BELIEVE!!!!!
I’d put the Mets at around 79-83 wins at this point with this current roster and assuming people stay healthy.