The MetsBlog Fan Confidence Rating is up above 50 percent for the first time since last summer.
Basically, what this says is:
51 percent of people who responded believe the Mets are headed in the right direction.
Yes, it’s vague, and it’s emotional… but, that’s the point.
I created the MetsBlog Fan Confidence Rating in January 2004, because I wanted to try and capture the emotional ups and downs of being a fan:
The highs are high, and the lows and low, and it all tends to track quite closely to the standings. As such, I now display a 50–day Moving Average in orange, to give a better sense of how our collective mood is trending.
For instance, if you look at the graph in the sidebar, the orange line (the moving average) is less volatile – it swings up last summer, dips in the winter, flatlines through the spring and is now trending upward.
The Confidence Rating has become a trademark of MetsBlog, to a certain extent.
Back in 2005, people with the team and other fans started asking me in person, “So, where is the Confidence Rating?” And, “Why do you think it’s so low, or so high?” It still makes for a good discussion point.
More importantly, I’m thankful I created this poll, because it’s fun to look back, stare in to it, and 1) realize how long I’ve been writing this blog, and 2) see and reflect on how crazy the last six years have been being a Mets fan, from the Kazmir Trade to Pedro and Beltran to Willie to 2006 to the Collapses to Firing Willie to Jerry to the Injuries to today… man, what a ride… now wonder I’m starting to see grey hair on my head.
that, and the chronic birthdays.
I think the higher confidence has a lot to do with dumping Matthews and Ollie on the DL. Perfect example of “addition by subtraction.” At least that’s why i voted “right track”.
That’s a different poll.
where’s this poll?
He puts it up every now and then. He has you rate the team 1 to 10. But I was with you on the direction of the team.
i moved up from wrong track to unsure…. thats what a sweep does for me… that and sending mathews down.. its fun when our core is hitting… this team does have FIGHT! AND I LOVE THAT MOST
Just curious, but what was the date it was switched from numbers to “right track, wrong track”?
What I found most interesting about the long-term view was that the fan base remained optimistic despite Oct 2006 — it wasn’t until August/Sept 2007 that we really began to doubt the team.
So, maybe it wasn’t “Duaner Sanchez’ taxidriver” after all…maybe it really was Ambiorix Burgos & Guillermo Mota & Aaron Sele & Jorge Sosa & Lino Urdaneta & Joe Smith & Tom Glavine — and not having Chad Bradford & Brian Bannister & Heath Bell & Matt Lindstrom — that lost the fan base…
Wow … you have an impressive memory
No – I have the internet. (I spent all of 2009 trying to blot out the memories of 2007 & 2008…)
The Mets are making us all bipolar. Pass the meds, please.
What would be neat is to add a second line that was something like games over/under .500 or games back, to see where that does not correlate perfectly with the poll numbers
Its things like the Molina non-signing that inspire more confidence.
FYI, Molina has been benched and has four hits in his last 50 at-bats and, since May 13, is 8-for-66 with two RBIs.
Yeah, i wasn’t a huge Molina supporter, but I knew we needed more offense from the catcher position if we were heading into the season w Jacobs/murphy at first, GMJ in center, and castillo at 2nd. Couldn’t be more pleasantly surprised how it turned out.
This graph is pretty meaningless. I just correlates w how they are playing in season, and how the FA signings are going in the offseason.
If he asks on a daily basis you get 2 completely different answers coming of a big win or loss. This team can’t be on the right track or wrong track on a daily basis.
Your point?
There’s always one in the crowd.
This is what makes Mets fans so great, because of their passion for their team. Either we love them or hate them, but we are never indifferent. Negative attention is often better than no attention (see Hanley and the Marlins).
I’m not sure this graph is still an accurate assessment… when it was a scale of 1 to 10, it was more of a direct reflection of each fan’s feelings towards the state of the franchise. Now that it’s a basic right track/wrong track/unsure, I don’t see how you can combine those results with those on a scale of 1 to 10 and still present the graph as a continuous and accurate representation of the readers’ confidence in the Mets franchise as a whole.
the 2007 collapse was a little deflating. Interesting, the 2008 collapse wasn’t as bad.
You can argue that 2008 wasn’t really a collapse
this graph is not meaningless. we’ve been living this for the last 5 years. i love looking at it and identifying the reasons for the peaks and valleys. this graph is as close as one can get to representing mets fandom in one image. good job matt.
anyway, it is not representative of immediate success/failure. the highest point in the last three years is barely better than the lowest point in ’06/’07.
It tracks the fans and their particular feelings about the ballclub in a given moment. It is a snapshot of the fan. It provides a brief glimpse into the psyche of the fan base and shows how volatile our emotions are towards the team were support really is.
This particular graph isn’t used or meant to evaluate talent, sign free agents, cure cancer, fix the economy or defeat Osama.
The fools that are mocking or attacking the graph are missing the point and have their respective heads where the sun doesn’t shine. Can’t a blogger have a little fun and take the core temp of the fan base without getting slammed about not creating a research paper or using the scientific method to develop this particular graph?
Is part of the fan base that anal?