BYB: David Wright’s Volatility

by Matthew Cerrone on January 5th, 2011 at 10:32 am

In a well-researched post at Beyond the Boxscore, Bill Petti uses a 10-day Moving Average of Win Probability Added (WPA) to look in to David Wright‘s ‘streakiness.’

Basically, Petti is saying that Wright’s hot streaks don’t last as long as they used to, all while his cold streaks last longer than they did. I think most every Mets fan has made this observation at one point or another over the last year or so, I know I have.

I don’t know why this is. I suppose it could be Wright’s walk rate, it could be where he stands in the box, it could be because of the people he’s had batting around him, it could be he’s ‘pressing,’ or the ballpark, his age, opposing pitchers, dumb luck, it could be all of these things, or it could just be who he now is as a player, or it could be that he’s no different than any other player who has an awesome season compared to a less-than-awesome season.

At any rate, these ups and downs stand out A LOT more when nobody else in the lineup is hitting, or playing. Hopefully, Wright’s streakiness will be less of an issue with Jason Bay, Ike Davis, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan consistently around to pick up the slack… at which point, perhaps Wright will be less streaky.

To read more about Wright’s hot and cold streaks, what they mean and if they’re real, check out Ted Berg’s post on TedQuarters.net.

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