“It’s time to stop playing the ‘what if’ game with the Mets and start dealing in reality.  Face it: The chances of this injury-ravaged team turning its season around are about as good as Jon & Kate getting back together.”

According to Cool Standings, a team will likely need 90 wins to take the National League Wild Card this season.

The Mets must go 40–18 in their next 58 games to win 90 games.

Cool Standings determines there is less than a one-percent chance the Mets win the Wild Card, based on pace, schedule, etc…

In the Wild Card Era, the 2004 Astros are the only team to come back from a less-than one-percent chance in August to make the playoffs.

…i will always believe anything is possible in baseball…

…the thing is, even when fully healthy, the Mets did not play nearly .700 baseball… what’s more, those guys aren’t really due back until mid-to-late August… so, let’s say they play around .500 and pick up a game or two over the next few weeks, then let’s say they’re all back, everyone, on September 1, giving the Mets a healthy, fully-stocked roster for the final 30 games of the season… even under that scenario, they’d still need to go something like 25–5 in September… 25… and 5…

…in other words, guys, if you’re gonna get hot, get hot soon…

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However, they have 80 games left to play, the potential to make a trade, and Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, John Maine, Billy Wagner and J.J. Putz eventually due back from the disabled list.

…thanks to our old friend Elliot S for the link…

Meanwhile, six percent voted for the Yankees, five percent voted for the Red Sox and just one percent voted for the Phillies.

…look, i’m no peach, and i know my blue-and-orange brother and sisters can be a bit rough from time to time as well, but 80 percent… really… 80… how can that be possible… frankly, i think our biggest crime is self loathing… but, in terms of external obnoxious behavior, gloating, etc., come on, Phillies fans and Yankees fans have to take the prize…

…jeez, you’d think Mike Francesa and Wallace Matthews would have better things to do with their day than vote 10,000 times in an online poll… oh, i kid, i kid…

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The Mets were 7–5, with one game rained out in Pittsburgh.

The thing is, the Mets started the stretch 5–1 in the first six games, all at home, then went 2–4 while on the road, including a three-game sweep from the Pirates.

“This road trip didn’t go like we had wanted it to, like we had planned,” David Wright said, according to Newsday.  “Unfortunately, that’s baseball.”

This week, the Mets will play three games against the Phillies in Citi Field, starting tomorrow, then travel to the Bronx to face the Yankees on Friday.

In a post to Brooklyn Met Fan, Adam Salazar writes, “Normally I’m ready to rumble with our two biggest rivals but this time I feel naked going against them without Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado.  Sure we can beat the Nats and Fish with one hand tied behind our back, but consecutive showdowns with possibly the two best teams in baseball, could easily turn into a bloodbath.”

…i hear ya, adam… but, even if the Mets drop two of three during each of these two series, remember the Phillies are playing the Red Sox this weekend… so, sure, next week, on Monday, the Mets could be four or five games out of first, though still three or four games over .500… frankly, it’s the 23 games after that, which have me worried, with some in American League parks, and 16 against the Cardinals, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers… and then it’s the All-Star break… in other words, this will be a difficult month…

On May 14, 50 percent of 4,200 people on MetsBlog said the expected the Mets would go 5–5 on the recently-concluded 10–game road trip, which is exactly what happened, while 33 percent said they would go 7–3.

Jerry Manuel, as quoted by Adam Rubin in the Daily News:

“Before the trip, going west, and playing three teams that were very good at home, to say that we could get out of it at .500, we probably would have taken it… But the way we started out, and the closeness of the games that we played in Los Angeles, we feel that we probably could have done better.  But that’s water under the bridge now.”

Rubin also provides other news, notes and quotes from yesterday’s loss.

The Mets return home to Citi Field today to face the Nationals for three games, followed by three games at home against the Marlins, after which they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates, then face the Nationals in Washington DC.

…ending 5–5 on that road trip is actually a positive, when i think about all of things that happened, from errors to injuries to travel to the competition… that said, i expect the Mets to press on and dominate the Nationals and Pirates, like they did in April and May… they have struggled against the Marlins this season… but, it’s this sort of trip that proved to come back and bite them in September the last two seasons… come on guys, don’t let up…

According to Minaya, though he is always open to making a trade, Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis will be able to handle the position in Delgado’s absence.

…i asked the following question a few days ago, but i wonder if people may have changed their mind since getting actual news about carlos…