Michael Baron
Follow Michael Baron on Twitter
Last week, Tim Byrdak underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee, and Sandy Alderson said he is expected to miss six weeks.
Currently, Garrett Olson, Chuck James, and Daniel Herrera remain as options to replace Tim Byrdak on the Opening Day roster. Josh Edgin, a promising left-handed pitcher who was recently promoted from minor league camp, is also in the mix, although he has never pitched above Single-A. However, LHP Robert Carson was among 12 players either optioned or re-assigned to minor league camp last week.
I was surprised the Mets cut Carson so quickly. With the injury to Byrdak, I would’ve expected the Mets to maximize their options at least until March 20, which is the last day a player on the 40-man roster can be optioned without risking the accrual of Major League service time, should he get injured. He strained his intercoastal muscle early in camp, and so that probably hurt his progress this Spring. I also wonder if the Mets view him as a starting pitcher over the long term, rather than a left-handed specialist.
Of the four options remaining in camp, I think Herrera best fits the profile of a left-handed specialist right now. He is small and doesn’t throw hard, but he has a deceptive delivery and has a lot of movement on his pitches, especially his screwball; that pitch can be especially effective against a left-handed hitter as it naturally moves inside and down. If he is used as a true lefty specialist and not routinely exposed to right-handed hitting, his screwball could be a valuable asset late in games.
Last week, Andy Martino of the Daily News said the Mets do not intend to carry two left-handed relievers during the regular season. In addition, Terry Collins has repeatedly cited Ramon Ramirez‘s ability to get left-handed hitters out during the course of Spring Training. If that’s the case, and Byrdak is ahead of schedule come Opening Day, I wonder if the team will opt to break camp without any of these options.
With that said, I think the Mets would be at an immediate disadvantage if they chose to open the season without a lefty in the bullpen. No matter what Ramirez’s ability is, Terry Collins’ flexibility to manipulate matchups and force opposing manager’s hands would be limited without that option available to him.
In 4 1/3 innings so far this Spring, Herrera has allowed five hits and two walks while striking out one. In his career, he has held left-handed hitters to a .215 batting average.
Yesterday, Mike Pelfrey made his first start of the Spring and allowed four runs and six hits in 2 2/3 innings, including a solo home run to Austin Kearns in the third inning.
Obviously, it was his first start and he has nearly four weeks to work on things before he makes his regular season debut. But there were a lot of parallels between yesterday’s start and his identity from last season.
For the most part, Pelfrey’s fastball hovered between 90-91 mph last season, and that’s pretty much where he was yesterday. He also lacked that hard, downward movement he so badly needs on his sinker, instead moving from left to right across the middle of the strike zone. That resulted in a lot of balls up in the zone and a lot of hard hit balls all over the field. He threw one real good sinker in his entire outing; a ball Terry Tiffee grounded through the third base hole for an RBI single in the first inning.
I talked to Pelfrey a lot about his sinker last week, and he told me he focused on identifying a comfortable grip for his sinker over the winter. He also acknowledged his delivery was inconsistent last year, and worked to improve upon that as well. However, in watching Pelfrey closely this Spring during batting practice and bullpen sessions, he has continued to throw on a very flat plane and has not missed very many bats as a result.
When Pelfrey was at his best two years ago, his body was more upright when his arm arrived in the throwing position, and at that time, his elbow was on a more consistent plane with his shoulder:
Last year, his delivery clearly changed, with his elbow on a lower plane than his shoulder:
To me, this one picture is particularly glaring as to why he gets more horizontal movement on his sinker, rather than downward action:
With his elbow on a lower plane than his shoulder, it makes it very difficult for him to get on top of the sinker consistently, considering he basically has to come “uphill” with his arm first before he gets on top of the ball. As a result, his arm is further behind in his delivery which leaves his arm dragging through his delivery rather than truly throwing over the top. That typically results in a slower and flatter plane for that (and any) pitch to be thrown on which is both identifiable and easier for the hitter to see. It can also be very stressful on the shoulder itself, as it requires more energy to motion uphill and then throw, no matter what the pitch selection is.
Here is a picture I took of prospects Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia, just before the first workout for pitchers and catchers last Friday:
They contrast each other very much in terms of their size and build. Familia is tall and massive, whereas Mejia is much smaller. However, on the mound, they are very similar pitchers. They both throw hard. They both expend a lot of energy per pitch and neither have smooth deliveries. Familia almost appears to drop down to throw three quarters, but then comes back over the top with good downward action.
I wouldn’t expect either to be groomed as relief pitchers. However, given the inefficiencies in their mechanics, both might be headed there eventually. It could work out well, having these two pitchers – with this level of talent – helping to shorten games for guys like Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jon Niese in the rotation.
Yesterday at Digital Domain Park, Jon Niese threw a bullpen session, emphasizing his off-speed with most of the pitches he threw.
The one thing I like about Niese is he’s very consistent and smooth with his delivery – he doesn’t strike me as someone who should throw as hard as he does, but he has very good mechanics and the ball jumps out of his hand, making him very sneaky.
This is a big year for Niese – he must prove he has the stamina to withstand a 162 game schedule. He told me yesterday the goal of his nose surgery was to improve his breathing, and it in turn allowed him to work harder on stamina and agility exercises during the off-season.
I’ve heard from a few of the Mets pitchers that they dealt with fatigue late last year, and while each have told me they worked in the off-season to improve their long term stamina, it’s easier said than done. They collectively need to stay not only stronger but equally consistent if this team stands any chance in 2012.
This week in Port St. Lucie, Johan Santana has participated in all workouts, including throwing, pitchers fielding practice, and fielding ground balls:
Of course, each bullpen session at this point is critical, and as Santana continues to build and throw all of his pitches the response from those outings will grow even more crucial. Should he continue this positive progression, the next test will be how he responds to game action beginning March 6, and his ability to sustain arm strength throughout each start.
Santana’s next bullpen is tomorrow. I look forward to shooting his session from a number of angles, analyzing his delivery and release point, and looking at his movement and velocity.
Throughout my entire life, I have been an avid baseball card and memorabilia collector. I have hundreds of thousands of cards in my closet; cards I have even collected into my thirties. Of course, my focus has always been on the Mets, and over the years I have acquired Tom Seaver’s Rookie Card from 1967, Nolan Ryan’s Rookie Card from 1968, and many more (if you’re interested, you can see some of them here).
As I said on Thursday, Gary Carter was my childhood hero. I wanted to be Gary Carter. And so, my baseball card collection includes every major release for Gary Carter across all of the brands.
Here are some of my favorites, including his rookie card from the 1975 Topps Series as well as his first cards as a Met; the 1985 Topps/Topps Traded and O-Pee-Chee (Canadian) sets. I have kept them all in mint condition:
It seems as though for the better part of the last 36 months, the discussion surrounding the Mets has been about lawyers, lawsuits, reducing payroll and costs, injuries, justifying and defending moves and decisions, losing, and other issues surrounding ownership – not about baseball.
In a few short days, baseball will return to Port St. Lucie and, in less than two months, baseball will be back. I will be in Port St. Lucie for a day this week and then again towards the end of February when pitchers and catchers arrive – and I can’t wait to bring you the story both in writing and in photographs as it happens. My hope is we, as fans, can celebrate the birth of the new season at that time, and start talking about this baseball team and the game. Why? Because as a Mets fan who has suffered through thick and thin with this franchise since 1985, I am sick of not talking about baseball and my favorite sports team. I am sick of the legalese, the mocking, the fear over the future of this franchise, and a theoretical inevitability that the Mets will lose. Everyday I hope the negativity will end, that the dramatics will end, and there can be a return to normalcy and winning. (more…)
Of all the coffee mugs I own, this is obviously my favorite:
I don’t, Michael, although Jason Bay‘s contract is certainly more movable than Johan Santana‘s contract. I can’t imagine anyone would entertain taking Santana off the Mets hands unless they would consider paying most of what’s due to him through next season. His shoulder will be a big question mark all year, and that assumes he will be able to contribute consistently in some sort of capacity throughout the year.
In regards to Bay, I’m curious to see if he can carry over his positive September into the new season, with the new dimensions playing into his strengths. He is a huge key for this offense this season (like he has been in each of the last two seasons). But like Santana, if the Mets want to move Bay, they would probably have to pick up most of the remainder of his contract (and his easily attainable option for 2014, which calls for $17 million).
Santana is entering the fifth year of a six-year, $137.5 million contract (with a full no-trade clause) in which he will earn $24 million. He will earn $25.5 million in 2013, and team holds a $25 million option on him for 2014 with a $5.5 million buyout.
Bay is entering the third year of a four-year, $66 million contract (with a full no-trade clause) in which he will earn $16 million. He will earn $16 million in 2013 and, if he compiles 600 plate appearances in 2013 or 500 plate appearances in both 2012 and 2013, his option for 2014 will engage at $17 million. If his option does not engage, he will be paid a $3 million buyout.
So, in other words, even if Bay and Santana do not play for the Mets in 2014, the Mets will still owe them a combined $8.5 million.
Brendan sent in an email asking:
Beato is certainly a part of the Mets bullpen depth, Brendan. He could also become part of a much needed level of depth in their starting rotation, but in both scenarios he might be on the outside looking in at the moment. The good news for the Mets is Beato is no longer subject to the rules of the Rule 5 draft, meaning if he doesn’t make the team, they do not have to return him to his former team – they can simply send him to the minors.
If Beato is to make the team on Opening Day, it will likely be in a bullpen role and he will have to show greater consistency and that his stuff (which is great, by the way) is more refined than it was last year. If they intend to make him a starting pitcher, he will likely go to the minors to build his innings.
The Mets acquired Beato via the Rule 5 draft in December, 2010. In 60 games for the Mets last year, Beato went 2-1 with a 4.30 ERA with 27 walks and 39 strikeouts in 67 innings.
To ask me a question, you can:
- Follow me on Twitter here.
- Connect with me on Facebook here.
- Send me an email to michaelgbaron@gmail.com.
I think so, David, and as SNY.tv’s Ted Berg wrote on TedQuarters earlier this week, there is enough talent on the roster to win 94 games. But for that to happen, Johan Santana must be able to contribute consistently and at a high level, they will need growth from other starting pitchers such as Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Mike Pelfrey, and both David Wright and Jason Bay must rebound and perform. On top of all of that, they need to stay healthy, something they have failed to do for the better part of the last four seasons. That’s a lot to ask, but this time of year is reserved for that kind of hope.
The starting rotation is, by far, the weakest area on the roster for the Mets. In fact, they probably have the weakest rotation in the National League East on paper.
Last year, the members of the projected rotation won 39 games (with Gee winning 13 of those 39), and pitched to a 4.17 ERA, walking 234 and striking out 491 and allowing 71 home runs in 720 1/3 innings pitched, averaging just over six innings per start. Those numbers must improve if the Mets have any chance at all to contend.
According to FanGraphs, Bill James predicts Gee will go 8-10 with a 4.33 ERA in 160 innings, Niese will go 9-10 with a 4.28 ERA in 160 innings, Dickey will go 12-11 with a 3.89 ERA, Pelfrey will go 9-11 with a 4.36 ERA in 188 innings, and Santana will go 14-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 189 innings. I agree with all of the projections except the one set for Santana because I don’t know if he will be able to throw that many innings, or what those innings will contain.
It concerns me there is so much of a dependency on Santana’s return from capsule surgery. Despite the belief he is ready to go for Spring Training, there are so many unknowns as to how he will respond to the rigors of camp and each Grapefruit League outing, let alone his ability to consistently contribute at the major league level. It all looks good in January when he’s throwing to Terry Collins in shorts and sunglasses, but it’s a whole other story three weeks from now.
The good news, Dan? The game isn’t played on paper, and if the aforementioned pitchers can positively progress as needed, they should be able to contribute more than 39 wins.
Brandon, I cheer in both good times and bad because I love the Mets and the game itself. I love the fresh hope of Spring Training in February, and watching the season (and the stories it contains) unfold into October. Despite the negativity surrounding the team, it’s owners and their finances, I still am very much looking forward to Mets baseball in three weeks.
Obviously, I’d prefer the Mets get past their current drama and win a World Championship or two, but the negativity doesn’t make the inner fan in me fade. If you’re going to go into a season with no hope on January 28, why bother being a fan to begin with? You never know what will happen which is part of what makes this game so great – see the 2011 Cardinals, 2010 Giants, and yes, the 1969 Mets.
To ask me a question, you can:
- Follow me on Twitter here.
- Connect with me on Facebook here.
- Send me an email to michaelgbaron@gmail.com.
